England vs Slovenia Odds
| England Odds | -300 |
| Slovenia Odds | +1000 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -110o / -110u |
England will look for all three points and to finish atop Group C when it takes on Slovenia in the Tuesday Euro 2024 action.
England did not look good in their previous match, drawing with Denmark 1-1 and throwing the entire country into peril. They are still at the top of the group and a win would see them finish at the top — and they are massive favorites to do so.
Slovenia were seconds away from getting all three points against Serbia, but conceded off a set piece to draw 1-1. The situation for them is pretty simple: A draw would get them to the knockout stage, regardless of what happens in the Serbia/Denmark match, which would be a massive accomplishment.
England Predictions
England really struggled building up against Denmark, which is a carry over from their match against Serbia as well. They have failed to create over one expected goal in either of those matches and really what it comes down to is they are by nature too conservative. Most importantly though, their rotations and passing against low defensive blocks is too slow and not brave enough to make line breaking passes or play through the middle.
If you look at England’s pass map it’s just Rice, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Guehi and John Stones all making passes back and forth to each other in close proximity, with no real onus to push the ball forward and get it to Harry Kane because he only had 22 touches for the match before getting subbed off. Anthony Gordon could be a potential solution to improve the performance of Harry Kane.
The other problem with England is they have a clear right side bias, trying to get the ball to Saka in 1 v 1 situations. Cole Palmer is mentioned as an alternative for the England team. Foden is not a left winger and clearly cannot play the position or give England the proper width that they need to stretch opposing defensive blocks because he always wants to play centrally. So, England are stuck with an unbalanced structure, no real method to get the ball centrally to Jude Bellingham or Kane, and they are happy to just pass the ball back and forth.
Slovenia Predictions
Slovenia is one of the most passive teams in this tournament. They are going to sit in a 4-4-2 defensive block, deny space through the middle and force England to beat them from out wide. As you have seen though with Slovenia, its offense is pretty limited to just transition attacks that end with a Benjamin Šeško shot or a cross into the box.
They also are pretty reliant on set pieces to create most of their chances. England is the best defensive team in the world and does not allow teams to score in transition or off set pieces against them, so this sets up for a very low-event type match with a lot of scoreboard watching to the other match.
Slovenia is going to be really reliant on Šeško to create most of its chances and take most of its shots. However, so far through this tournament he has been neutralized by both Serbia and Denmark, as he's only taken four shots and created 0.5 xG.
Even if Slovenia doesn't have a lot of talent in its midfield and defense, it has a world class goalkeeper in Atletico Madrid's Jan Oblak. He's been incredible so far this tournament, putting up a +1.8 post shot xG +/-, and will keep them in this match.
England vs Slovenia
Prediction
The Three Lions likely need a win secure the top spot in Group C, but a draw isn’t the worst result either. For Slovenia, a draw will get them to the knockout stage, so this is going to be a very slow-paced match, likely without many high-quality chances.
Even if England go ahead in this match, they have proven under Gareth Southgate that they will concede possession and control of a match and force the other team to try to create chances. Plus, given the situation they are in with a win sealing the group, we are likely going to see them park the bus like they did against Denmark, which against Slovenia isn’t a bad strategy.
I have 2.04 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the under 2.5 at -110.
Pick: Under 2.5 (-110 via FanDuel)
