The Europa League is back to fill your Thursdays with wall to wall soccer action.
It may be Europe's second tier competition, but that doesn't mean there isn't still a ton of drama and the prize at the end is incredibly valuable for the teams in this competition, as a spot in the Champions League next season is on the line. The past three champions, Villarreal, Frankfurt and Sevilla, wouldn't have qualified for the Champions League if they didn't win this competition.
If you'd like to check out my Europa League Projections you can find them here. Now let's get into my Europa League picks, featuring Marseille vs Brighton and Villarreal vs Rennes.
Europa League Odds & Picks
| Marseille Odds | +187 |
| Brighton Odds | +130 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -188 / +140 |
This is the headliner of Thursday's action Brighton travels to the South of France to take on Marseille.
Marseille have been in a state of turmoil this season after manager Marcelino who was hired in June didn't even make it to September before leaving the club. So, to right the ship, they hired former Napoli, AC Milan, and Valencia manager Gennaro Gattuso. Something that is key under Gattuso is that his team are not necessarily going to press high and try to disrupt build up play. He prefers them to sit back in their defensive shape and try to regain the ball through a mistake from the opposition when they try to build up.
This could work out perfectly against Roberto De Zerbi's Brighton, who loves to bait teams into pressing them. This is key to having success against the Seagulls.
Marseille already weren't pressing high under Marcelino, ranking 13th in PPDA and 12th in high turnovers in Ligue 1, so they are set up tactically to cause Brighton problems, but they are really struggling defensively lately. In their last three matches against Ajax, PSG and Monaco they've conceded 10 goals and seven big scoring chances. Good luck stopping Brighton, who are averaging the second-most xG per 90 minutes in the most difficult league in the world.
Brighton do have some major defensive problems right now. They conceded three goals to AEK Athens in their opening Europa League match and have allowed nine big scoring chances in their seven Premier League matches. Where they're really struggling is defending in transition. They're style of baiting the opponent into pressing the opposing center back only works if they are free of mistakes. So often times what is happening is if Brighton lose the ball from a bad pass from their back line it creates a transitional opportunity from the opponent and teams in the Premier League have been punishing them.
This has a high scoring affair written all over it, especially with how these teams are going to set up tactically. So far in Ligue 1, Marseille are averaging the second-most xG and shots per 90 minutes in France, so they can cause problems for this Brighton defense.
I have 3.77 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+130 via DraftKings)
| Villarreal Odds | +130 |
| Rennes Odds | +190 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -138 / +110 |
Pacheta played a more direct style at Real Valladolid, which is a massive change from Setien, who had Villarreal primarily playing out from the back in a slow build up style. He's been in charge for five matches now in all competitions, with Villarreal losing the expected goals battle in four of them. The defensive numbers are also incredibly concerning. Villarreal have already allowed 12.3 xG in their first eight matches and are conceding the most shots of anyone in Spain.
The tactical philosophy of Bruno Génésio at Rennes is that of positional play. They play out of a 4-4-2, but everything in their system is designed to create numerical advantage to create 1 v 1 situations out wide. To do this, Rennes will often build out in a 3-2-5 to overload the last line of the defense and create space out wide for their talented wingers to get those 1 v 1 opportunities.
They've done this to great success this season, averaging 1.85 xG per 90 minutes in France. They are a team that wants to play out of the back and plays at an incredibly slow pace, valuing short passes to build up through each phase of the pitch. They already have 112 10+ pass sequences this season, so I am expecting them to control a majority of the possession even though they are on the road.
Given where these two teams are at currently, I think Rennes are the far better side, so I like the value on them draw no bet at +120.
