Fulham vs Newcastle Odds
| Fulham Odds | +200 |
| Newcastle Odds | +125 |
| Draw | +260 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -134o / +105u |
Fulham and Newcastle try to keep alive their hopes of winning silverware this season when they meet in Saturday's late kickoff in the FA Cup Fourth Round at Craven Cottage.
Fulham was narrowly dismissed by Liverpool in the League Cup semifinals in midweek, earning a 1-1 home draw in Leg 2 that was not enough to overturn its aggregate disadvantage from Leg 1. Meanwhile, Newcastle crashed out of European competition last fall and has seen its league form slide as a result of a heavy wave of injuries, and could use a deep cup run to build some second-half momentum.
Newcastle won the sides' one previous meeting this season, 3-0, against a Fulham side that played most of the match with 10 men back on Dec. 16 at St. James Park.
Let's break down this matchup in our Fulham vs. Newcastle preview and pick.
Fulham
The return to goal-scoring form by Raúl Jiménez has ushered in an era of increased attacking production overall for the Cottagers.
Since Jiménez scored the first of his five league goals in mid-November, Fulham has scored in all but one of the nine games the Mexican international has started and played the majority. They've even had two five-goal outbursts in that stretch and found the net 21 times in total across those nine fixtures.
A three-match league scoreless stretch came mostly without Jiménez. He was sent off early in the defeat at Newcastle for his violent challenge on Sean Longstaff and served the second and third games of his red-card bans in shutout defeats to Burnley and Bournemouth.
But after his fifth goal in a 2-1 home win against Arsenal — easily Fulham's best performance of the season — he has gone three games without scoring, twice in the League Cup by Liverpool and once in a league meeting at Chelsea.
While Craven Cottage isn't known as the most formidable ground in England, Marco Silva's side has made it into a fortress recently. Their +12 margin of points earned at home versus away is the third highest in the Premier League behind Newcastle (+19) and Liverpool (+13).
While Newcastle's injuries are well-known, Fulham is the team suffering more greatly from call-ups to the African Cup of Nations, with Alex Iwobi the most recognizable absence for Saturday.
Newcastle
After a miserable end to December, logic suggests a Newcastle improvement should be on the horizon.
Injuries and other absences damaged Eddie Howe's squad, which finished last in its UEFA Champions League Group and has lost seven of its last 10 in all competitions. But now those performances have cleared the schedule, with the Magpies coming off a needed two-week break heading into this one, and about a week to prepare for their three previous games before that.
Unfortunately, the easing of those scheduling demands has coincided with matches against the league's elite. And the analytic numbers from back-to-back league defeats to Liverpool and Manchester City are ugly — with the Magpies trailing 10 to 1.9 in xG across the two games.
Even so, Newcastle was within a stoppage-time goal of grinding out a point against City. And the visitors' analytic advantage in a 3-2 win didn't tell the whole story. It was the Magpies who surged to a 2-1 lead before halftime. And while City finished with three xG created, it only created one chance with a greater than 0.3 xG value, a threshold sometimes defined as a "big chance."
In between those two league defeats was a comfortable and convincing win over lower-tier derby rivals Sunderland to reach this stage of the FA Cup. So, there may yet be reason to hope for improvement soon.
The caveat is that better away form will be required. Newcastle has taken only five points from its Premier League travels and is 3-8-5 in all competitions away from St. James' Park.
Fulham vs Newcastle
Prediction
All the numbers say you should play Fulham at this price: The Cottagers are one of the Premier League's best home teams, playing one of the Premier League's worst away sides. And the xG data — when applied to home/away splits — match up with the actual results in that respect.
But everything about the situation says you should play Newcastle: They're a Champions League qualifier who has had two weeks off and is coming off their most promising performance in months, even if it ended in a defeat to the defending league champions. By contrast, Fulham is only a couple days removed from its Leagues Cup disappointment and may be at risk of a hangover.
That conflict will keep me from backing either team here. Where I do see opportunity is in the unique nature of cup competition, which can sometimes depress scoring.
Both Fulham and Newcastle are attack-minded sides, so it's hard to play an outright Under wager. But the occasion probably means it's less likely we see the kind of three-to-five goal explosions both teams have put together in their better league efforts.
There's value in the middle on 2-3 goal bands wager at +105 odds and an implied 48.8% probability. It's a bet that has cashed in six of eight single-elimination cup matches these sides have played this season.
One more thought: Even with the specter of a potential Fulham hangover, Jiménez to score anytime at +200 odds or better is worth playing if he's in the starting XI. He's still getting chances, and Newcastle's defense just hasn't been trustworthy. But I'd wait for lineups given the potential for squad rotation in this spot.
