"Hello, darkness, my old friend
I've come to talk with you again."
So, you might be wondering why the opening lyrics of the 1965 hit, "The Sound of Silence," from legendary duo Simon & Garfunkel appear at the start of this story. They just seemed oh so apropos when it comes to the rollercoaster ride that comes from wagering on soccer underdogs.
Well, the pain and torture of betting those longshots, who more often than not get you to the final minutes of a game with a lead only to give up an equalizer in stoppage time, has made its long-awaited, long-anticipated return to the fold.
Yes, our favorite form of betting has returned. Global Underdogs are back.
We have quite a busy weekend on the global landscape, which means our Action Network analysts have a chance to unleash their favorite moneyline gems at solid prices.
Handicappers Jeremy Pond, Ian Quillen, Nick Hennion, Brett Pund and Anthony Dabbundo are back it again, looking to uncover some tasty longshots in various leagues around the world.
If you're a new or old friend to this preview, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in Ligue 1, Premier League, Major League Soccer or even the Championship, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite clubs on the intriguing slate.
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Preston vs. QPR | QPR | +235 | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| RBNY vs. Montreal | Montreal | +475 | Saturday | 4 p.m. ET |
| Angers vs. Lille | Angers | +230 | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
| Man City vs. Liverpool | Liverpool | +250 | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| Torino vs. AC Milan | Torino | +310 | Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Jeremy Pond: QPR ML (+235) vs. Preston North End
- Odds available at PointsBet
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Ah, yes. I have returned to the Championship, where bad luck is the name of the game for my selections. However, I just can't stay away from English second-division soccer.
And wouldn't you know, we've found a match featuring our old pal Preston North End taking on Queens Park Rangers in Saturday's action. Now, my affinity for the Lilywhites has been well documented. They're one of my favorite clubs and I'm a proud supporter of the Lancashire outfit.
However, I'm fading the host and backing QPR to win outright. The Hoops are in desperate need of a three-point showing, due to the fact they're five points from the sixth and final playoff spot ahead of this crucial meeting.
As for Preston, the club is in no man's land in the table. The Lilywhites are in 13th place, with no chance of being relegated or promoted. Preston is coming off a 1-0 midweek win against Blackpool in the latest West Lancashire derby, but it now gets a QPR side who must go after the victory to keep its playoff — and Premier League promotion — hopes alive.
For that reason, we're backing QPR to earn the road victory. The Lilywhites have only lost three times at Deepdale in league play, but the Hoops have already beat them via a come-from-behind, 3-2 win earlier in the campaign.
Give me the team in dire straits with the more potent offense every time.
Ian Quillen: Montreal ML (+475) vs. RBNY
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 4 p.m. ET
The New York Red Bulls haven't scored three or more goals at home in their last 25 games at Red Bull Arena.
Montreal has scored three times in its last two away trips. That's simplifying things a little, of course, but the price on Montreal is too low for a couple reasons.
The first is there are very real reasons the Red Bulls struggle to score in northern New Jersey. Mainly, their extremely high-pressure brand of play is easier to turn into coherent attacks when the opponent feels compelled to send numbers forward. They don't so much when they're the visiting team.
The second is Montreal's early numbers come with a caveat: they were balancing CONCACAF Champions League commitments and a road-heavy league schedule through March. The club's xG difference (-0.7) is actually pretty impressive when you consider it has played four of five games away.
Additionally, Montreal should welcome back striker Romell Quioto from COVID-19 protocols. The Red Bulls are without Caden Clarek (injury) and Frankie Amaya (suspension) for this contest.
New York should still be favored. However, the Red Bulls don’t rout anyone on its home pitch. And if Montreal is always going to be in touching distance, playing it at odds implying a 17.4% probability is a sensible, calculated risk.
Nick Hennion: Angers ML (+230) vs. Lille
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
The reverse fixture saw these sides draw 1-1, but the change of venue is quite meaningful here.
On paper, Angers has played very poorly at home of late. It is 2-4-0 (W-L-D) in its last six fixtures, owning a -2 goal differential in those six contests. However, the club's underlying metrics suggest Sunday’s host has experienced a good deal of misfortune. In those same six games, Angers holds a +2.4 expected goal differential, per fbref.com.
That trend is indicative of season-long bad luck for Angers as well. Entering this fixture, manager Gerard Baticle’s side owns a -2 goal differential on a +1.3 xGDiff on home soil. Plus, Angers has played decent soccer against top-half sides at home. In seven such outings, it has a -1.6 xGDiff and held six of seven sides under one xG in the process.
Plus, the Angers attack carries a unique statistical advantage into this head-to-head affair. Per Opta, it has attempted the seventh-most shots off set piece situations in Ligue 1, while Lille has allowed the sixth-most shots in the league action via dead-ball situations.
Add in the fact Angers could see some positive offensive regression based on its home performances this season — it has scored 16 goals on 19 xG so far — and I believe this is a good upset pick.
Brett Pund: Liverpool ML (+250) vs. Man City
- Odds available at FanDuel
- Day | Time: Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET
When looking at the odds for the game of the year in the Premier League, there's one question I keep asking myself: When will I ever get another opportunity to bet Liverpool at +250 on the moneyline?
Yes, I do understand the Reds are playing at Manchester City, but I really don’t see much of a difference between the two teams right now.
Liverpool comes into the game winning 10 consecutive EPL matches, posting a +16.9 xGDiff and holding opponents to just 0.82 xG per 90 minutes during this stretch. Not to mention, manager Jürgen Klopp’s team ranks better than City in shots per game, big scoring chances created and xG per match.
The other key edge for the Merseyside club is how the midweek Champions League fixtures played out. The Reds secured a convincing victory over Benfica, which should keep all attention on this match.
Meanwhile, the UCL is the last competition manager Pep Guardiola lacks since he took over at City. So, you have to think there will be some looking ahead to Wednesday’s game against Atlético Madrid in Spain. It also doesn’t help that key defender Rúben Dias will miss the showdown due to injury.
You will not get this sort of price on Liverpool very often, and when you add everything up, I think this is a great spot to back the live underdog.
Anthony Dabbundo: Torino ML (+310) vs. AC Milan
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Sunday | 2:45 p.m. ET
AC Milan finds itself atop the Serie A table with just seven matches remaining in the season, but the underlying statistics suggest it has been quite fortunate to be there.
Milan is just fourth in xG difference per 90 minutes, because its attack has greatly over-performed the xG with excellent finishing in front of net. They’ve scored 56 goals from 49 xG and now have a difficult road trip against one of the best defenses in all of Europe. Rossoneri have kept five consecutive clean sheets, but was fortunate to not concede in three of those games.
On the other side, Torino has conceded just 29.2 xGA all season, which is second best in the Italian top flight and 10th-best across Europe’s top-five leagues. Torino’s attack has also considerably underperformed itself and is due for some positive regression.
Milan is one of the best transition teams when given space to attack into, but Torino is a pretty conservative, possession team and more than capable of defending without the ball. The club is best in the league when it comes to pressing intensity and second in preventing the ball from getting into their own penalty area.
Based on my projections, Milan is considerably overvalued, likely because of its position in the title race and “must-win” narrative. I only have Torino sitting at +220 odds on the moneyline and would take it at +260 or better to win.
