European club soccer has finally returned. And you know what means?
That's right. Our weekly Global Underdogs betting preview and detailed analysis is back in the mix, with the crew pumped to deliver their live longshot plays via this popular feature.
Action Network handicappers Jeremy Pond, BJ Cunningham, Anthony Dabbundo, Ian Quillen, Brett Pund, and Nick Hennion have found some saucy selections to open the new campaign. Obviously, their goal is to deliver multiple winners at solid prices and they think they have some ripe options.
If you're a new or old friend, our experts look for live underdogs at +200 odds or longer playing on the weekend around the globe. Whether it's a match in Premier League, La Liga, the Championship or maybe something from Major League Soccer, the goal is simple: Find a team that could deliver a winner.
That said, let's take a look at their favorite picks on the intriguing docket.
Our Favorite ML Underdogs
| GAME | PICK | ODDS | DAY | TIME |
|---|---|---|
| Bochum vs. Mainz | Bochum ML (+210) | Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET |
| Newport County vs. Walsall | Walsall ML (+270) | Saturday | 10 a.m. ET |
| Dortmund vs. Leverkusen | Leverkusen ML (+210) | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| Atlanta vs. Seattle | Seattle ML (+260) | Saturday | 3 p.m. ET |
| Nashville vs. Toronto FC | Toronto FC ML (+375) | Saturday | 8 p.m. ET |
| Manchester United vs. Brighton | Brighton ML (+500) | Sunday | 9 a.m. ET |
Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.
Nick Hennion: Bochum ML (+210) vs. Mainz
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET
To me, these teams are fairly equal, so I’m happy to back Bochum as a home underdog in its Bundesliga opener.
Although the club lost its top goal scorer from last season, Bochum returns a defense that allowed the fourth-fewest home expected goals in the German top flight. Plus, it had a 2-0 home win against Mainz, which had the seventh-worst road expected-goal differential in the German top flight, per fbref.com.
Mainz also struggled against inferior foes on the road. In five home fixtures against sides that finished 11th to 15th place in the table, manager Bo Svensson’s squad was 0-5-0 (W-L-D) overall. Even if you throw out the 5-0 drubbing from Wolfsburg where Mainz had a man sent off, that’s still an 0-4-0 record with a -0.6 xGDiff in those contests.
Meanwhile, Bochum demonstrated an ability to earn home points against meddling sides. In all home tilts against teams outside the top seven, the outfit was 6-3-1 (W-L-D) with a +5.2 xGDiff overall.
Based on those trends, I'm backing the hosts as long as we're getting above +200 odds.
Jeremy Pond: Walsall ML (+270) vs. Newport County
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
Ah, yes. I'm making my season debut with an obscure match where Newport County welcomes Walsall to Rodney Parade (yes, that's the actual name of the venue) in South Wales that's part of the busy League Two slate.
The Exiles — or The Ironsides to some supporters — opened their campaign with a 1-1 draw at Sutton United. On the other side, the Saddlers pounded Hartlepool in a 4-0 thrashing to bag all three points out of the gate. Newly acquired striker Danny Johnson recorded the hat trick on debut for Walsall.
Recent history clearly favors Newport County, due to the fact it's unbeaten in six games against Walsall going back three seasons. However, the Saddlers haven't lost consecutive trips to Rodney Parade in more than 60 years.
That, combined with Walsall's brilliant performance to start the season are enough for me to back the visiting side at this price to triumph in this meeting.
Anthony Dabbundo: Bayer Leverkusen (+210) vs. Borussia Dortmund
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET
Borussia Dortmund enters the season with a lot more turnover than Bayer Leverkusen. Erling Haaland, who departed for Manchester City, is being replaced by Karim Adeyemi for now while Sebastien Haller is out with a medical issue.
The club is also working a new central midfielder and two central defenders, thus it could suffer from some early growing pains under permanent manager Edin Terzić.
I'm much less concerned about Leverkusen because it returns almost all of its squad and added new striker Adam Hlozek to help replace injured Florian Wirtz. In the second half of last season, Leverkusen played to a +1.15 xG difference per 90 minutes, which was second best in the Bundesliga and clearly better than Dortmund, which sat around +0.55 per 90 minutes.
The gap between these teams is pretty small and there should be goals in this affair, so I like taking a shot on Leverkusen at +200 odds or better.
Ian Quillen: Seattle Sounders ML (+260) vs. Atlanta United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Saturday | 3 p.m. ET
Seattle has only won three times on its travels this season, but that record improves drastically to 2-2-0 (W-L-D) in games with Raul Ruidiaz on the field.
The striker, who returned from his latest hamstring setback Tuesday in a 1-0 win over FC Dallas, could be fit enough for 45 minutes in this contest. Atlanta United has only lost twice at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. However, the back end of its home schedule is the most difficult portion.
And against clubs that enter the weekend in playoff position, the side is 2-2-2 (W-L-D) at home overall and 1-2-1 in their last four outings.
Currently, Seattle occupies a playoff spot and has earned 1.67 points per game in their last 15 fixtures since winning the CONCACAF Champions League title. Atlanta is also particularly susceptible to the counterattack, given its injuries on defense and in the holding midfield part of the pitch.
Yes, the Sounders are on short rest, but they have a deep roster and oddsmakers don’t seem to be accounting for Ruidiaz’s return. That said, back Seattle at +265 odds on the moneyline and an implied 27.8% probability.
Brett Pund: Toronto FC ML (+375) vs. Nashville
- Odds available at BetMGM
- Day | Time: Saturday | 8 p.m. ET
Oddsmakers are still pricing Toronto FC as the same team before Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernadeschi arrived, so we’re going to keep taking advantage of this situation and back the club at +375 odds via BetMGM for our top underdog play.
In the two games the duo has already started in, the Canadian side has a +2 xGDiff and averaged 1.8 xG per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.
Meanwhile, Nashville hasn't been as good at home as it has been in years past. The outfit sits in the bottom half of Major League Soccer in points per game (1.40) on home soil.
Nashville also had a long trip to Portland for a midweek match on Wednesday, while Toronto comes into the fixture with a full week of rest and prep time.
BJ Cunningham: Brighton & Hove Albion ML (+500) vs. Manchester United
- Odds available at DraftKings
- Day | Time: Sunday | 9 a.m. ET
A lot of changes have happened thus far at Manchester United. Erik ten Hag is now the manager. Paul Pogba has moved onto Juventus. Christian Eriksen and Leandro Martinez are in the team. And that's pretty much it.
However, we essentially have the same group that settled for a +0.3 xGDiff last season and wound up eighth place in the EPL table. And that finish was actually behind its season-opening opponent in Brighton.
The Red Devils were also 12th in PPDA, as well as 14th in both pressure success rate and High Turnovers forced. So, suddenly the same personnel is suppose to become this possession-dominant side that can press and turn foes over in their own final third?
That might work against Bournemouth or Wolves, but not against Brighton, which was top six at playing through pressure and fourth in average possession last season. Also, the Seagulls smashed their hosts in a 4-0 rout late last season, winning the xG battle by a 2.8-0.8 margin.
Give me Brighton at +500 odds.
