Barcelona at Mallorca Odds and Picks
| Barcelona odds | -345 (BET NOW) |
| Mallorca odds | +800 (BET NOW) |
| Draw odds | +480 (BET NOW) |
| Over/Under | 3 (-136/+112) (BET NOW) |
| Time | Saturday, 4 p.m. ET |
| TV | beIN Sports |
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One of the world's most iconic athletes, Leo Messi, comes back into our lives on Saturday afternoon as title-chasing Barcelona visits relegation-threatened Mallorca at 4 p.m. ET on beIN Sports.
Everything, from the odds to the stats to the talent disparity between these two teams, paints a picture of a blowout.
But if there was ever a time to bet on a minnow like Mallorca to pull the rug out from underneath a behemoth like Barcelona it would be under these circumstances, with the playing field leveled — even if just a little — because of the three-month hiatus due to the pandemic.
| Barcelona | Mallorca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for per game | 2.33 | 1.04 |
| Expected goals for per game | 1.94 | 1.25 |
| Goals against per game | 1.15 | 1.63 |
| Expected goals against per game | 1.13 | 1.9 |
| Total goals per game | 3.48 | 2.67 |
| Total expected goals per game | 3.07 | 3.15 |
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
As the numbers show, these two teams are in entire different universes. Barcelona continues to operate as one of the world's best teams and their attacking trio of Messi, Luis Suarez and Antoine Griezmann would give any defense nightmares.
Barca's finishing talent is one reason why you shouldn't look too much into the fact that they are scoring 0.4 more goals per match than their xG suggests they should be. Uber-talented teams are always a good bet to outrun their underlying metrics.
Based on their expected goals, Mallorca's uninspiring results this season are fair, if not a bit flattering. It's hard to call Los Bermellones lucky or unlucky. They are what they are.
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Interestingly, Mallorca would be in a much worse position if it wasn't for a slew of shocking wins over Real Madrid, Valencia and Villareal.
Is another big upset in the cards? Here's what the odds say, when you convert them to implied probability:
- Barcelona: 73.2%
- Draw: 16.3%
- Mallorca: 10.5%
Even though Barcelona is very likely to win this match I can't suggest laying -345 on any team in their first match back after a three-month hiatus in the middle of the season. I also don't think the full-game price on Mallorca warrants much attention, either.
Mallorca has struggled all season in front of their own goal, ranking third-worst in goals conceded and second-worst in expected goals conceded. Those numbers don't inspire much confidence against the Law Office of Messi, Suarez and Griezmann.
The goals will likely come for Barcelona, but I do have some faith that Mallorca can hold on for the first 45 minutes, especially since it may take some time for Barcelona's goal-scoring Cerberus to find their rhythm after nearly 100 days away from the field.
Mallorca is just one point behind 16th-place Celta Vigo in the race to avoid relegation, so a point against Barcelona would be a coup for Vincente Moreno's chase for safety. The goal won't be to go out and beat Barcelona, but to hang with them as long as possible to give them a chance at a draw, or if they're really fortunate, a lucky win.
Since I expect Mallorca to try and gum up the game, I took a look for a decent price on Barcelona to struggle to score in the first half. Barca is +188 not to score in the first 45 minutes, but the 1H Under 0.5 goals is listed at +310. I think these two bets are highly correlated since Mallorca will be hard pressed to create any chances at all and I don't think they will look to go forward much.
This isn't exactly a fun bet to watch and losing it on a Mallorca goal would be crushing, but I'll take a chance on a nice price in what I hope is a mundane first half at Estadi de Son Moix.
