Liverpool vs Southampton Odds
| Liverpool Odds | -154 |
| Southampton Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +333 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -211 / +160 |
Liverpool continue their quest for another trophy after winning the League Cup when they host on Southampton in the FA Cup.
Liverpool are coming off winning the League Cup in extra time against Chelsea. The Reds are in the middle of massive fixture congestion on top of an injury crisis while also trying to contend for three different trophies. Eventually the wear and tear is going to take it's toll, so we'll see what lineup they put out there Wednesday.
Southampton are having a wonderful season under Russell Martin sitting in fourth place in the Championship. The Saints are going through a bit of a bad run of form, but they have a really attractive team to watch given their ability on the ball. They've been cooking offensively over the second half of the season and are definitely live to upset Liverpool.
Read on for my Liverpool vs Southampton prediction.
Liverpool
Liverpool won the league cup in extra time against Chelsea, but the match took its toll. The Reds are going through a full blown injury crisis at the moment, which has already caused their line for this match to crash. Both Darwin Nunez and Mo Salah missed the final and are questionable for this match, as they could be rested for Nottingham Forest on Saturday.
That means that Liverpool will have to go with a front three of Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo and Harvey Elliott, which is less than ideal even if they put up close to four expected goals against Luton Town and 1.5 against Chelsea.
The bigger question is who starts in the midfield for Liverpool? Curtis Jones, Ryan Gravenberch, Dominik Szoboszlai and Wataru Endo are all going to miss this match, which means that Liverpool are likely going to have to start academy players in this match, which may have worked for a short period of time with Endo on the pitch against Chelsea, but against a surging Southampton squad it's a different story.
What Liverpool are most likely going to look like is the Liverpool of the beginning of the season. The problem that Liverpool had over the first few months of the season was their passiveness out of possession. Because Liverpool had no defensive midfielder or any ball stopping in the middle of the pitch it made it hard for them to deploy their usual devastating high press. With Endo, Graveberch or Jones in the squad Liverpool have been able to counterpress at a ridiculously high level, but without any of them available, I am not sure Liverpool can be super aggressive.
Southampton
Southampton have hit a bit of a rough patch losing three of their last four matches, but overall for the season, Russell Martin has done a fantastic job on the south coast getting Southampton comfortably into a promotional playoff spot. They have the third-best expected goal differential behind only Leicester and Leeds because of how good they are in possession.
Southampton are averaging 66.1% possession and have only held less than 50% in two matches. Martin preaches building out of the back and using short passes to get through the first and second phases of build up. The Saints have attempted the most short and medium passes and also have the highest pass completion rate. The chart below shows just how dominant they are on the ball.
image via The Analyst
Because Southampton are so good in possession, they've been doing a great job of creating chances given how often they have the ball in the opponent's final third. The Saints have gone 13 straight matches of creating at least 1.5 expected goals and lead the Championship in touches in the opponent's penalty area.
Liverpool vs Southampton
Prediction
In any other circumstance, a possession-dominant team from the Championship facing one of the best counter presses in the world would be a death sentence. However, the squad that Liverpool are going to play is going to look nothing like their usual first team, especially in the midfield, so Southampton could have a lot of success in build up.
The fixture congestion for Liverpool on top of all of the injuries is a real issue right now. So, there is a chance, since they're in the middle of a heated title race, that Liverpool could punt the FA Cup and play a lot of the academy players again. If that is the case, then this line is way too high.
With Liverpool playing a lot of teenagers, I like the value on Southampton +1 at -127.
