MLS Odds & Picks: Back FC Dallas vs. Nashville on Sunday

Dallas vs. Nashville Odds

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You don’t often see a rematch take place so early in the Major League Soccer season, but that’s exactly the situation Sunday when FC Dallas faces Nashville SC in Texas.

This will be the second game between these clubs in the past four days, with Nashville picking up the franchise’s first victory in a 1-0 shutout on Wednesday at Toyota Stadium. Midfielder David Accam came off the bench to score the game-winner in the 86th minute, giving the visitors the surprising win.

Wednesday's match marked the end of a long competitive hiatus for both franchises. Neither club was allowed to participate in the MLS is Back tournament due to Covid-19 outbreaks among each of their respective teams.

FC Dallas enters Sunday's rematch with a 1-1-1 record, picking up a win against Philadelphia in its season opener and a draw against Montreal before Wednesday's loss against Nashville.

On the other side, expansion club Nashville began its inaugural campaign with back-to-back losses against Atlanta United and MLS is Back champion Portland. So, the franchise had to be excited after such a monumental win against Dallas earlier this week.

Matchup Analysis

If you’re looking for in-depth data and analytics, there really isn’t much to speak of for this contest. FC Dallas is at 3.1 expected goals and 2.0 expected goals against for a plus-1.1 expected goals differential.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

In contrast, Nashville is rates far below its opponent in both statistical categories (1.2 xGF/0.5 xGA = +0.7 xGDiff). Each club has allowed three goals through three matches, solidifying the fact they have relatively strong defenses.

After watching the first match a second time, I felt FC Dallas did enough to earn the win, but Dallas simply could not put it together in Nashville’s defensive third to find that opening goal.

That being said, I am rolling with FC Dallas for the second consecutive match and look for it to pick up the win. The Toros are going to come out on their front foot and look to take control from the outset. FC Dallas let Nashville hang around too long in the first game, which it can’t afford to let happen this time if it hopes to secure all three points.

If you’re looking for an alternative play, sprinkle a little on the total staying under the number. That lack of finishing in the most recent match was glaring, and it will likely carry over into this showdown.

The Bets:

• FC Dallas (-125)
• Game total under 2.5 goals (-124)

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