Euro 2024 continues on Monday, July 1 as we continue with the knockout stage.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham's offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Sunday's France – Belgium and Portugal – Slovenia games.
Monday Euro 2024 Projections
France – Belgium, 12 p.m. ET
France are 51.4% to win in 90 minutes and 66% favorites to advance. Both teams have seen their offensive rating stay almost identical to pre-tournament ratings, while their defensive ratings each bumped up a slight bit.
I'm in line with the market leaning towards the under on 2.5 goals. Since my projections are in line with the market, I'll pass on this game.
Portugal – Slovenia, 3 p.m. ET
Portugal are 66.2% to win in 90 minutes and 79.5% to advance. Slovenia have the exact same offensive and defensive power ratings compared to pre-tournament, while Portugal have seen their offensive power rating decrease more than their defensive power rating has improved. That opens up some value on Slovenia.
Slovenia have drawn all three games so far, and I am showing value on a draw, as well as on their chances to win. I think the best way to play the value on Slovenia is by playing them +1.5, with the best line at -118.
I also like some exact score bets.
