Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Odds
| Nottingham Forest Odds | +375 |
| Tottenham Odds | -143 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -154 / +120 |
Nottingham Forest will be hosting Tottenham at the City Ground in a match where both sides will be desperate for all three points. Forest are looking to stop the downward spiral they have been in recently, while Tottenham will look to continue their chase for the top four.
Forest currently sit 16th in the Premier League with just 14 points. They have not won a match since the beginning of November and have lost four of their last five. They are now just five points above the relegation zone.
Spurs currently sit fifth in the Premier League, just three points below the top four. They finally got back to winning ways last weekend after not winning any of their previous five league matches. They will be looking to capitalize on their win in what looks like a potential three points for Spurs.
Let’s kick off this Premier League match week with my Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham prediction and match preview.
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Nottingham Forest
Forest have been a mess over the past month. They have not kept a clean sheet since November 5th and have only scored five goals in their previous five matches, just picking up one point in the process. What has been interesting with Forest is that they have won the xG battle in three of those five matches and only got battered in one match, a 5-0 loss to Fulham. So, what has been going wrong recently?
Steve Cooper’s men have not been defending well by any means. They have conceded just over 7.5 xG over these past five matches but have conceded 13 goals. This is an unbelievable underperformance by the Forest defensive line and goalkeepers, and the stats have reflected that.
Forest are now the biggest under-performers in the entire league regarding goalkeeping. Their goalkeepers have conceded 5.5 more goals than expected all season. They have faced just 71 shots on target throughout the season, but have conceded 28 goals, resulting in a save percentage of just 63.4%, the third-lowest in the league. Their defense actually hasn’t played too poorly, they are just getting no help from their goalkeepers.
This matched with their lack of attacking threat will lead to relegation form every time. Nottingham Forest have accumulated an xG number of 17.4 in their 16 matches, which is why they are where they are in the table, and why they have only picked up one point in their last 6 matches.
Tottenham
Spurs have not been on the best run of form themselves. They have picked up just four points in their last six matches after having picked up 26 through their first 10 matches. This poor form has seen them fall from top of the table now down to fifth, seven points off top of the table. This poor run of form can be almost entirely attributed to their injury situation.
They have gone without Maddison, van de Ven, Bentancur, Soloman, Perisic, Dier, Sessegnon and Richarlison for some time this season. They were able to get Richarlison back this past weekend where they beat Newcastle 4-1 and Richarlison scored two goals.
Ange has his system and is sticking with it. He does not care what players he has, he is going to play a high line with an attack-based brand of football. When he has a full-strength squad, we have seen how effective his system can be. However, when he is playing Emerson Royal and Ben Davies as his center backs it makes them so much more vulnerable to the counter.
Spurs will still have all the same injuries in this one, so I expect another match of this Spurs high line while they try to beat this Nottingham Forest low block. The question will be if they are able to defend efficiently enough to neutralize Forest’s counterattack.
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham
Prediction
We have seen it time and time again with Spurs this season. Ange is not going to shy away from his style of play. He could have a team full of youth players out there and he would want them to control possession and have the back line play near the halfway line.
This can be effective, but when they play this way with makeshift center backs, they become vulnerable to all sorts of pressure from their opponents. Nottingham Forest like to play a very defensive system and then transition into offense when their opponents are caught out.
I can see this match being high scoring, but I can also see Forest making this much more difficult for Spurs than some may expect. This is why I will be taking Forest +0.75 at -120. Not only do I see a ton of value on this number, but I also love the spot for Forest with Spurs' injury situation.
