Arsenal vs. Southampton Odds, Pick, Prediction: Back the Underdog in Saturday EPL Clash

Arsenal vs. Southampton Odds

Arsenal looks to rebound from two consecutive losses when they host Southampton on Saturday in Premier League action at Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal have lost back-to-back matches against Manchester United and Everton, both of whom they scored first against. Manager Mikel Arteta's team was in pole position to challenge for a top-four spot in the table, but after those two defeats, it's looking like Arsenal are more of a mid-table side.

However, a win here could see them get within one point of that coveted final Champions League spot.

In contrast, manager Ralph Hasenhüttl's side is playing much better than most pundits expected this season. The Saints are currently in 16th place, but their underlying metrics suggest they're a better side than battling against relegation.

Southampton have been in decent form, picking up eight points in their last six matches and a result at the Emirates would push them further away from the drop zone.

Arsenal Coming Off Brutal Effort vs. Everton

Arsenal, who looks terrible right now, completely lost control of the match against Everton this past Monday and deserved to lose.

The Gunners' defense is very reliant on Gabriel and Ben White to be playing at a high level because the rest of the midfield has been poor defensively this season. Arteta’s style of play is very reliant on Arsenal having a large share of the possession because when they don’t have the ball, they don’t press.

The Gunners aren't a good team stylistically like Burnley, which can defend in a low-block structure at a high level without pressing. 

The result of all of that has Arsenal allowing 1.55 NPxG per match, ranking 13th in shots allowed per 90 minutes and 12th in box entries allowed. Arsenal is also 19th in total pressures and PPDA, so they won't be able to exploit Southampton, which is below average versus pressure.

Metrics Show Southampton Not That Poor

Southampton has been much better than all of us expected. Defensively, the Saints are allowing 1.35 NPxG per match, but they're eighth in shots allowed per 90 minutes and sixth in box entries conceded. Bottom line, they're  just allowing too many big scoring chances.

The Saints are going to press Arsenal a ton, but the Gunners have been pretty good against pressure. However, if you go back to matches against teams like Brighton & Hove Albion, Liverpool and Watford — essentially teams that press at a high rate — Arsenal struggled to create chances against them.

Offensively, the Saints have been really good, ranking inside the top seven in NPxG, box entries and big scoring chances. So, going up against an Arsenal defense that has allowed 9.3 xG in their last nine matches means they should be able to create some chances.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Arsenal is overvalued in this spot at home and the Saints pressing is likely going to give them fits, like other teams that press at a high successful rate have done this season.

I only have Arsenal projected at +105, so I like Southampton getting +1 at -130 odds or better in this matchup.

Pick: Southampton +1 (-130)