PSG vs Real Sociedad Odds
| PSG Odds | -163 |
| Real Sociedad Odds | +475 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -106 / -118 |
PSG host Real Sociedad in Paris for the first leg of their round of 16 tie.
PSG have built a sizable lead in Ligue 1, so they now can focus on the competition that they have prioritized over everything else. With all of the rumors about Kylian Mbappe leaving in the summer, this could be their best chance to actually win the Champions League.
Real Sociedad pulled off an upset and won their group over Inter to put them in a good position, but got the worst draw possible pairing up with PSG. They've been in terrible form recently, but have shown the ability to hang with Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid in La Liga and could get a result here in the first leg in Paris.
Here is my PSG vs Real Sociedad prediction.
PSG
Luis Enrique puts a massive amount of value on controlling matches and possession. The only teams that have given them trouble are ones who can disrupt their build up play.
There was one match during the group stage for PSG where it was pretty clear that if Enrique is going to build out of the back against elite pressing teams, they are going to have problems. That one match was against Newcastle at St. James Park, when Newcastle still looked like an elite pressing team. The only other team in France that presses at the level of Sociedad is Nice and PSG had a lot of problems in their match against them, losing 3-2 and committing a bunch of turnovers in their own end of the pitch. Real Sociedad can cause similar types of problems.
In Ligue 1 this season, PSG are averaging 64.1% possession, 22.3 10-plus pass sequences per match and have one of the longest sequence times in Europe's big five leagues. That is wonderful, but it's one thing to do that against teams in the bottom half of the table of Ligue 1. Doing it against a Champions League-level defenses is another.
Out of possession, PSG have drastically improved because of how good their counter pressing has been when they lose the ball, as they have an 8.7 PPDA and have forced the third-most high turnovers in Ligue 1 this season. With that being said, they will be without Milan Skrinar for this match, which does leave them vulnerable in transition.
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Real Sociedad
Real Sociedad are an elite team out of possession because of their compact defensive shape, but also their pressing. They are the No. 1 team in La Liga in PPDA and progressive passes & dribbles allowed. They will press out of a 4-4-2 and the main principles are to not allow teams to play through the center parts of the pitch. They’ve done this to great success in La Liga allowing just 0.99 npxG per 90 minutes. They were incredibly successful playing this way in the Champions League because they didn’t allow over one expected goal in any of their six group stage matches.
Real Sociedad’s offense hasn’t been great this season, but they went through a pretty bad dip in form here in January when their best offensive player Takefusa Kubo was away at the Asian Cup. In the five matches this season without him on the pitch, Real Sociedad are only averaging 0.58 xG per 90 minutes. When he is on the pitch they are averaging 1.37 xG per 90 minutes, so he makes a massive difference to their attack.
Sociedad's primary method of attack is through deep circulations. They slowly progress the ball up the pitch and then move it side to side in the opponent's final third, looking for an opening.
They are very good at playing through teams that will press them high like PSG, ranking third in Offensive PPDA and build up completion percentage in La Liga.
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PSG vs Real Sociedad
Prediction
Mbappe has the ability to wreck any match because he's the best player in the world. However, I do think the market isn't giving this Sociedad team enough credit.
Inter haven't lost in ages in Serie A and there have only been two or three teams that have truly outplayed them. Real Sociedad are one of them. Over their two matches Sociedad held Inter to just 1.2 expected goals, which is an incredible accomplishment considering Inter are averaging 2.06 xG per 90 minutes in Serie A.
You have to choose one or the other against PSG. You have to either press them high and try to disrupt their build up or sit in a compact passive low block. If you get caught in the middle of either that is when Mbappe and company punish you. Real Sociedad have the ability to play either style out of possession and have the ability to stifle PSG's offense.
I only have PSG projected at -114, so I like the value on Real Sociedad +1 at -137.
