Bundesliga Odds: RB Leipzig vs. SC Freiburg
- RB Leipzig odds: -325
- SC Freiburg Odds: +800
- Draw: +450
- RB Leipzig Spread: -1.5 (-112)
- SC Freiburg Spread: +1.5 (-102)
- Over/Under: 3 (-112/-112)
- Time: Saturday, May 16th at 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV: FS2
As the Bundesliga returns, eighth-place Freiburg (36 points) heads to Red Bull Arena to take on third-place RB Leipzig (50 points). RB Leipzig had been sitting on top of the table for most of the season before a slight slip in form over their past few games.
Freiburg had a better-than-expected start to the season, taking 22 of 36 points from their first 12 matches of the season. Since then they have struggled, earning 14 points over their past 13 matches.
RB Leipzig
Outside of Dortmund and Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig is the most dominant team in Germany, with a lineup full of young, talented prospects. Their best player, Timo Werner has 21 goals to his credit already this season and has been linked with a summer move to Liverpool. Werner is a star-in-making who could start up top for just about any team in the world.
Much of the Red Bulls' success this year has come from beating up on the bottom of the table. RB Leipzig is 12-0-1 against the bottom-10 clubs in the table and is outscoring them 42 to 12, while they have struggled versus the top of table only recording a 2-8-2 record.
Freiburg
Freiburg has been difficult team to figure out this season. They currently sit 8th in the table with a -1 goal differential and haven't won two games in a row since their first two matches of the season. Breisgau-Brasilianer have not lost more than games in a row, either.
Freiburg average 1.35 expected goals for (xGF) and 1.98 expected goals against (xGA) per match, so they should actually be a little bit lower in the table than where they currently sit.
Previous Meeting
In the previous fixture between these two clubs back in October, Freiburg notched a 2-1 win at home. However, RB Leipzig was the better team in the match. Die Rotten Bullen outshot Freiburg 24 to 14 and created a lot of high-quality chances that they did not convert. In fact, Freiburg did not register a shot for the first 40 minutes of the game and caught a lucky break when a blocked shot turned into a tap-in goal.
The other Freiburg goal came on a mistake by the RB Leipzig defense, which lead to a break away one on one chance against the keeper.
The expected goals report had it 2.74 xG for RB Leipzig compared to 1.78 xG for Freiburg. So, RB Leipzig should have won the match based on their quality of chances.
Statistical Analysis
Expect to see Leipzig spend a lot of time in Freiburg's penalty area. In their previous meeting, Leipzig weren't very effective at creating chances inside the penalty area, as 58.3% of their shots came from outside the penalty area. That was out of character for Die Rotten Bullen, who rank third in the league with an average of 1.35 expected goals from inside the penalty area per match.
While RB Leipzig are an offensive force, defense isn't a strong suit for Frieburg, which allows the third-most expected goals from inside the penalty area (1.22) and most shots per game in the Bundesliga.
Leipzig, which averages 16.2 shots per game, should have plenty of chances in this game and, on paper, the Red Bulls should be able to put Freiburg away for an easy win. The expected goals in my model for this matchup have it at 3.02 for RB Leipzig to 0.71 for Freiburg. Based on those numbers I think there is value on RB Leipzig spread of -1.5.
The Bet: RB Leipzig -1.5 (-112)
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