Serie A Odds, Pick, Prediction: Inter Milan vs. Juventus Betting Preview (Oct. 24)

Inter vs. Juventus Odds

Inter Milan ended the streak of Juventus title runs at nine when Inter won the Scudetto with manager Antonio Conte last season.

There's been a lot of turnover at both clubs since last season ended, though. Juve needed a win and help on the final day just to make it into the Champions League places. Andrea Pirlo has since been replaced by Max Allegri as manager, Christiano Ronaldo left the club and Juve won none of their first three league matches.

For Inter Milan, manager Antonio Conte left the club, striker Romelu Lukaku is now at Chelsea, right wingback Achraf Hakimi is now at PSG and the club has had financial issues throughout the summer. It hasn't really affected them on the pitch, though, as Inter sit third on 17 points.

Despite their poor start to the season, Juventus have a chance to pull even on points with Inter and erase the deficit the Old Lady created with their poor start to the 2021-22 season.

Inter Boast Top Italian Attack

Inter Milan's attack began the new season with a ridiculously good run of finishing, on top of elite production from forwards Edin Dzeko and Lautaro Martinez. They've cooled off a bit from that start that included nine goals in the first three games, but Inter still feature the number one attack by expected goals in the Italian top flight.

Inter have created the most high-quality chances in Italy, rank sixth in box entries and crosses into the area and have one of the lowest shot-distance averages in the league.

The issues for Inter of late have come on the defensive end, where they have conceded 7.5 xGA in their last four Serie A matches. Atalanta, Sassuolo, Lazio and Fiorentina is an above-average strength of schedule, but Inter have conceded a lot of high-quality chances, don't pressure or recover the ball well and offer little resistance into their own penalty area.

Under Conte last year, the strength of the Inter team came in transition attack, and the number one issue for them this year has been defending counters and transitions. When space has been found, Inter have struggled to defend it.

Juventus Have Narrowly Earned Recent Wins

Juventus have won four consecutive games by the exact same 1-0 scoreline, but the numbers suggest they've been a bit lucky to be squeaking out those results. In the last four matches, two in the Champions League and two in Serie A, Juve have outscored opponents 4-0 despite an xG difference of +0.1 in total.

The Old Lady stole wins against Roma and Torino despite not really being the better side over the course of 90 minutes. Allegri's side hasn't really improved defensively of late, the shots from opponents just have not been going in.

Juventus are due for some defensive regression and are likely to cede possession and game control to Inter away from home in hopes of hitting them on the counter. However, none of the attacks Juventus have played in the last month feature the same firepower that Inter does and it's unlikely Juve will make it five clean sheets consecutively away from home.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Game state is really important in this matchup because if Juventus score the first goal, the Old Lady will go into a low block-and-counter approach to try to protect the lead and exploit Inter in defensive transition. That makes this game much less open.

But if Inter grab the first goal and Juventus have to play a more open style to try to find an equalizer, it makes for a more wide open game as Inter have faltered to hold leads but still possess an elite counterattacking squad profile.

The total over 2.5 goals has too much juice to play it pregame based on my projections, but a live over is worth a look after the opening 10-15 minutes are likely to feature little to no action in this match.

Pick: Live Wager — Total Over 2.5 Goals (+100 or better)