Switzerland vs New Zealand Odds
| Switzerland Odds | +110 |
| New Zealand Odds | +290 |
| Draw | +210 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+160 / -211) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (+120 / -163) |
| Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here. | |
Switzerland and New Zealand meet for a winner take all match. Switzerland win the group with a won or if they draw and Norway draw or beat Philippines. New Zealand need a win to win the group and if they draw Switzerland, they need some help.
The Swiss held on to draw with Norway 0-0, but did give up a lot of chances in the process. They failed to make it out of the group stage at the Euros last summer, but they are in a perfect position to win the group and set up a very favorable matchup in the round of 16.
After a huge upset over Norway in their opening match, New Zealand were the ones getting upset, losing to the Philippines 1-0 to put themselves in a precarious position heading into this match with Switzerland. New Zealand didn't have great results in friendlies in the lead up to this World Cup, so the result against Norway in the opener was a bit fluky. There's a good chance that one of the host nations is going to be out in the group stage.
Switzerland Ready to Battle For Knockout Stage
Switzerland breezed by the Philippines in the opener playing their slow possession build up style, creating 3.1 xG in the process. Against Norway they found it more difficult to play the way they want to as Norway pressed them effectively, limited their chances and really they should have come away with the win.
🇨🇭𝐒𝐰𝐢𝐭𝐳𝐞𝐫𝐥𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟎-𝟎 𝐍𝐨𝐫𝐰𝐚𝐲🇳🇴
With just one point from two games, Norway's hopes of reaching the knockout stages are in the balance.
They are now winless in four #FIFAWWC matches, their worst run since at least 2011. pic.twitter.com/BlgY27i6l8
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 25, 2023
The good news for Switzerland in this matchup is they likely will be the ones controlling a majority of the possession. New Zealand will come out and press them, but they aren't very effective in doing so. Switzerland are second in the tournament in the number of build up sequences only to Spain, and they also have the second most 10-plus pass sequences, per The Analyst.
Unless Philippines somehow take a lead against Norway, Switzerland only needs a draw to win this group and they are well equipped to put a stranglehold on possession and get the result they need.
New Zealand Face Tactical Disadvantage
The friendly results leading up to this World Cup kind of optimize what New Zealand struggle with, which is chance creation. They did a decent job creating in transition against Norway and were really unlucky to find the back of the net against Philippines. However, they are in a weird position where they have to almost assume Norway are going to beat Philippines, which means they have to go for all three points in this game.
New Zealand typically line up in a 4-4-2 shape and primarily rely on transition or set piece opportunities to be their main method of trying to score, which is how they scored against Norway. Their two main threats have been Hannah Wilkinson, who scored against Norway and leads the team with eight shots, and Betsy Hassett, who leads the team in chance creation.
The biggest problem for New Zealand, especially in this matchup, is their pressing has not been effective in this tournament. They have only forced 17 high turnovers and their PPDA has been average compared to the rest of the World Cup field. The problem that exists with them is their defensive shape is fairly predictable and when pressing so much they can be vulnerable. So, it's going to be a challenge against a possession-dominant team like Switzerland.
Switzerland vs New Zealand Pick
This match sets up perfectly to be low event. Switzerland are one of the slowest paced teams in this tournament that is good at controlling matches and possession against smaller sides. All they need is a draw (assuming Norway don't lose to the Philippines) and they have won Group A. So, I would imagine that this is going to be a very boring match for at least the first 45 minutes.
New Zealand will eventually have to come out and press Switzerland, which they haven't been very effective in doing, but on the flip side Switzerland struggled with chance creation in the build up to this World Cup and against Norway.
So, I like the value on the first half under at a plus-money price.
The Pick: 1st Half Under 0.5 (+138 via BetRivers)
