Euro 2024 continues today on Tuesday, June 18 with two fixtures.
Like World Cup 2022, I'll have projections for every game, along with analysis and any potential bets that result from showing projection value.
My projections simulate each game 250,000 times and are powered by my colleague BJ Cunningham‘s offensive and defensive power ratings for each team. Using his power ratings, I use something called diagonal-inflated bivariate poisson to simulate the scoring distribution for each game.
Let’s dive into my Euro 2024 match projections for Tuesday's Portugal vs Czech Republic game and more.
Euro 2024 Match Projections (June 18)
Turkey vs Georgia, 12 p.m. ET
Turkey are favored to win 65.5% of the time, but these are two of the three worst defenses in terms of our power ratings, so expect some goals.
Turkey averaged 1.58 xG/game in qualifying against teams that were generally better defensively than Georgia. We're also seeing some value on Turkey, so let's back their offense.
Pick: Turkey Over 1.5 goals (-105 via DraftKings)
Portugal vs Czech Republic, 3 p.m. ET
I have Portugal favored to win 55.6% of the time. They faced an easy qualifying schedule, however, with opponents that averaged 1.12 xG/game in qualifying.
The Czechs average 1.91 xG/game, marking a 70.5% increase in expected scoring output to what Portugal faced in qualifying. When adjusting for schedule, Portugal are overvalued in this spot.
Pick: Czech Republic +1 (+100 via DraftKings)
