USA vs Uruguay Odds, USA Soccer Picks
| USA Odds | +145 |
| Uruguay Odds | +200 |
| Draw | +225 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+110/ -138) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 9 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 |
| Odds as of Monday morning via DraftKings | |
USA are in a must win spot when they face Uruguay in the last match of the group stage.
The United States went down to 10 men early in the match against Panama and it ended up costing them, as they lost 2-1 and are now underdogs to progress to the knockout stage. They will more than likely need a win to or a Panama draw/loss against Bolivia to get the knockout stage, otherwise the tournament hosts are going home early.
Uruguay have been dominant so far in Copa America, putting up a +7 goal differential and they are in the driver's seat to win Group C. Marcelo Bielsa's style of play is not going to have them sitting back and playing for a draw, so this is going to be a very fun match with a lot of chances at both ends.
Here is my USA vs. Uruguay preview.
USA Picks
The big problem for the United States is the last team they faced that is going to press them with the intensity that Uruguay is going to was Colombia, and they lost 5-1 in a friendly before this tournament.
In that match against Colombia, the United States kept trying to build out of the back to avoid getting into a back and forth type of match because that is not how they are built to play. So, that leaves them in a really bad position here, as Uruguay are the best pressing team in South America. Not only did the United States struggle to defend Colombia, but they didn’t have a striker with the pace and physicality of Darwin Nunez. Chris Richards and Tim Ream are not the fastest center backs, which means that Uruguay are going to have their chances.
The spine of Uruguay is really difficult to play through, but Berhalter’s in possession system has been more reliant recently on attacking from out wide. It makes sense because their best attacking players are out wide and that is where they try to create overloads. Additionally, throughout this tournament we’ve seen the United States put a bigger emphasis on set pieces, which will be key against Uruguay, a team that allowed the second-most shots per set piece throughout World Cup Qualifying in 2023.
Uruguay Picks
Even though Bielsa isn’t going to be on the sidelines and even if Uruguay decides to play more of a mid block, they will be well-positioned to attack the United States in transition. They’ve been dominant so far this tournament scoring eight goals so far and only conceding 0.7 xG in total to Bolivia and Panama. With that being said, if they decide to play aggressively out of possession, it’s going to give the United States chances in transition.
Bielsa is somewhat of an innovator in the game of football with his idealisms of high pressing, vertical attacking football. He has his side playing out of a 4-4-2, which becomes a 4-2-2-2 in possession, always looking to play a long ball or through ball to Darwin Nunez, which worked incredibly well during qualifying and in their first two matches of the tournament. They force you into playing an up tempo match with them. Even the best build up team in the world had no choice. Uruguay beat Argentina 2-0 in late 2023 by pressing out of a mid block and punishing them in transition. Then they backed it up by beating Brazil.
Even though they have more than likely wrapped up the group, I think you will see a full strength squad from Uruguay and there is no way Bielsa is going to have them just sit back and play for a draw.
USA vs Uruguay
Prediction
The situation on Monday night is a terrible one for the United States. They are likely going to have to commit a lot of players high up the pitch to try to overload Uruguay's defense, which is going to leave them incredibly exposed for counterattacks from Uruguay.
By nature, Uruguay are going to press and leave themselves exposed on the break, which is going to create a very fun, back and forth type of match.
This is a really game state-dependent type of match as well. Uruguay are happy with the draw, but like they showed against Panama, once they get a lead they are not just going to sit back. They are going to keep pressing and trying to win the ball to create easy transition opportunities.
I have 2.83 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+115 via Caesars)
