West Ham vs Newcastle Odds
| West Ham Odds | +240 |
| Newcastle Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -150/+120 |
West Ham looks to continue their good form when they host Newcastle at the London Stadium.
The Hammers have enjoyed one of their best ever starts to a Premier League season, winning four of their first seven matches to put them in seventh place in the table. David Moyes has his team set up exactly how he wants, but as we've seen when they have to play some of the elites of English football this season, they've struggled.
Newcastle is in fantastic form having won their past three matches by a combined score of 14 to 1. They played one of the toughest schedules to begin the Premier League season, but are now starting to face some of the non-elite teams. This could be a situation where they flex their muscles.
West Ham
The biggest question I have with West Ham is regarding the effectiveness of their low block. Moyes wants his team to set very passive and allow opponents to have a ton of final third entries. He wants to close off the middle of the pitch and force the ball wide, daring teams to beat them with crosses.
Well, we are seven matches into the season and West Ham has already played Chelsea, Brighton, Manchester City and Liverpool, so take this with a grain of salt, but they are last in the following categories: box entries allowed, final third entries allowed, crosses completed into their penalty area, and progressive passes + dribbles allowed. Their defense has been overperforming, allowing only 10 goals off of 14.6 expected because Alphonse Areola is having an unreal shot stopping season — he already has a +4.0 post-shot xG +/-.
The West Ham attack is primarily built on transitional opportunities and there is no denying the talent in their attack with the likes of Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen. The Hammers are averaging 1.58 xG per 90 minutes through seven matches, a big improvement from last season. They have become one of the best set piece teams in the Premier League and rank second in xG per set piece, exactly what Moyes wants to see. However, they are going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League, so I find it hard to believe they're going to create a lot of high quality chances or be efficient on set pieces.
Newcastle
Newcastle is coming off a resounding 4-1 win in the Champions League where they destroyed PSG when they tried to build out of the back. This will be a much different opponent, but one that should set up well for Newcastle.
In theory, West Ham conceding possession and staying in a low block against Newcastle would be their best course of action, but when you send almost every goal kick long, you create a back-and-forth transitional match that is played at the pace Newcastle wants.
The Magpies are at their best offensively when they are playing in transition and allowing all of their attackers to run at the opposing defense. West Ham may not give them those opportunities, but if they can score first, that may be all she wrote.
Newcastle, when playing with a lead this season, has an absurd 2.55 xGD per 90 minutes. Plus, Newcastle destroys non-elite Premier League teams.
Dating back to the start of last season, Newcastle has a +1.24 xGD per 90 minutes against the bottom of the table and already has put up a combined 7.2 expected goals against Burnley and Sheffield United.
West Ham vs Newcastle
Pick & Prediction
If Newcastle was sitting at -120 or -130, this match would have been the easiest pass on the board. However, given the spot, the market has pushed Newcastle down on the moneyline down to +110.
We also have to remember that they aren't the only team in this match that had European duties to attend to this week. West Ham had to travel to Germany on Thursday to take on Freiburg in the Europa League, so even though they are at home, they're actually the team that has done the most travel in the past week and are on one less day of rest.
I have Newcastle projected at -160, so I love the value on them at +110 (BetMGM)
