The final day of the ATP Cup round robin stage is upon us for six countries, and the most clear-cut group is Group D, where Poland, Argentina, Greece and Georgia reside.
Poland and Argentina each sit atop the group with two match wins, and the countries will square off on Tuesday night to determine which nation will have the honor of a semifinal berth at the tournament.
Here are the two matches in which I believe Poland will be able to get the job done.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on watching tennis matches.
Kamil Majchrzak (-160) vs. Federico Delbonis (+125)
6 p.m. ET
This is a line that just screams value to me. Majchrzak is a player who is most comfortable on hard courts, while Delbonis didn't win a single match on the surface in 2021.
Though the Argentine has been able to convert in his first two matches at the tournament, they've come against players ranked 399 or lower. First, he beat Aleksandre Metreveli before getting past Michael Pervolarakis. The latter was able to compete with Delbonis, pushing him to a first-set tiebreaker before Delbonis pulled away.
It's a credit to the lefty that he was able to win those matches, but Majchrzak will present a much more difficult challenge. The world number 117 amassed nine wins on hard courts in 2021, and he's done well to open his campaign this year. He earned a more convincing win against Pervolarakis than Delbonis was able to muster, and he was solid in a fairly easy matchup with Aleksandre Bakshi.
A look at the players' hard court stats in 2021 paints the picture of this matchup. Delbonis won just 63 percent of the service games he played on the surface while generating a 0.5 ace-to-double fault ratio. Majchrzak won 78 percent of his service games to go with a 2.4 ace-to-double fault ratio.
This is a matchup that just bodes so favorably for the Polish number two that I'm more than comfortable backing him as a -160 favorite. The only thing that could stop me from believing in Majchrzak would be a historically poor record against lefties, but it's only six percent worse than his Tour winning percentage against righties.
Back Majchrzak.
Pick: Kamil Majchrzak -160 via DraftKings
Diego Schwartzman (-150) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (+118)
7:20 p.m. ET
The second match of the tie pits the red-hot Schwartzman against top-tenner Hurkacz. The pair have faced twice before, with the Argentine taking a three-set match on clay at Rome in 2020 and Hurkacz taking a three-set match at this event in its inaugural 2020 display.
Schwartzman has been playing at an incredibly high level thus far, defeating Nikoloz Basilashvili and Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he'll have to keep that level to help his team advance to the next stage of the competition.
Surprisingly, Hurkacz dropped a set to Metreveli in his last match, but overall it was domination from start to finish. Hurkacz didn't face a break point and created 10 of his own while hitting 16 aces and not a single double.
That type of serving will do wonders in a match against Schwartzman, who won't be able to return the favor on his own serve. Of course, that's not where El Peque shines, but the inability to generate free points will be rough in a match against Hurkacz who can go toe-to-toe at the baseline with Schwartzman.
In fact, Hurkacz still hasn't lost a match at the ATP Cup, winning three ties in 2020 for Poland against players like Dominic Thiem, Borna Coric and of course, Schwartzman.
This has the potential to be a firecracker of a match, but getting Hurkacz at plus-money in this situation is a great price to attack.
Pick: Hubert Hurkacz +118 via PointsBet
