Alcaraz vs. Ruud Odds
| Alcaraz Odds | -260 |
| Ruud Odds | +210 |
| Over/Under | 22.5 |
| Time | 1 p.m. ET |
| Odds via Caesars. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
The most exciting name in tennis will take on world No. 8 Casper Ruud for the second Masters title of the year.
Each player has dropped just one set en route to the final. Alcaraz lost the opening set of his quarterfinal match against Miomir Kecmanovic while Ruud dropped the second set of his quarterfinal versus Alexander Zverev.
Both Alcaraz and Ruud have played excellent tournaments, but the 18-year old has electrified crowds with next-level play once again.
Incredible athleticism, ball-striking, net-play and everything in-between has defined the tournament from Alcaraz, who has taken out players such as Stefanos Tsitsipas, last year's defending champion Hubert Hurkacz and the in-form Kecmanovic.
Through five matches, Alcaraz has been broken just two times, but the Spaniard has recorded 11 breaks of serve in the same span. If Alcaraz wins the final, he'll rise all the way to 11 in the rankings, but even with a loss Alcaraz would jump up to 12th in the world.
Ruud has enjoyed a phenomenal tournament of his own, recording 17 breaks of serve and conceding just four breaks. His forehand has controlled each match he's played off of the ground, and he's won at least 79% of his first serve points in each match.
Alcaraz and Ruud met once in 2021, with the teenager dominating the match on the duo's preferred surface of clay. It was played in Alcaraz's home country of Spain, and he took full advantage of the crowd's energy. Alcaraz won 78% of his first serve points and 57% of his second serve points while Ruud won those points at just 57% and 20% clips.
Since then, both Alcaraz and Ruud have elevated their hard court games to become comfortable on the surface, and in the process they've become some of the world's best hard court players.
Alcaraz is 26-10 in the past two years on hard courts while Ruud is 24-8. Overall, Alcaraz is 65-21 in the past two seasons while Ruud is 70-20.
Here's how I believe the match will unfold.
Betting Value
While Ruud may have an edge in experience, that's just about the only advantage that he has over Alcaraz. The only other aspect of his game that's mildly superior is his first serve, but even that isn't significant.
Ruud has amassed 27 aces and just five double faults, but he's extremely reliant on those first serve points, and his second serve win percentages are far lower than Alcaraz's. That's in part due to the dominance off of the ground that Alcaraz has had, but it's a worrying sign for the Norwegian.
Alcaraz is averaging a 70% second serve win rate throughout the tournament while Ruud is at just 47%. On the ground, Alcaraz should be able to exploit Ruud's improved but limited backhand from both his backhand and his forehand, and Ruud will generally need to avoid backhand to backhand rallies at all costs.
And even if Ruud does maintain the first service level that he's had this week, he's going to be dealing with the best returner that he's seen all week by a good margin. At this point, Alcaraz is one of the best returners on tour, and the free points that Ruud generated against prior opponents will be reduced.
There's just too many weapons in Alcaraz's game to avoid playing him at 3.5 games here. From his ability to attack with power and his world class drop-shot to an improved serve that is offering him free points, Ruud could be in for a long day.
Back Alcaraz to thrive in his first Masters final.
Pick: Carlos Alcaraz -3.5 games (-105 via Caesars)
