Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev Odds, Pick, Best Bet: Where to Find Value in Final Match of ATP Season

Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev 

In the final match of the ATP season, Daniil Medvedev will battle Alexander Zverev for the third time in 15 days.

Most recently, Zverev and Medvedev met in the group stage of the Finals, and they put on a thrilling match that saw Medvedev seal the victory in a third-set tiebreaker.

If the world number two is able to beat the world number three for the sixth consecutive time, he'll repeat his 2020 accomplishment of being an undefeated ATP Finals champion.

The last player to achieve that feat was Zverev's semifinal opponent Novak Djokovic, who won the event on four consecutive occasions from 2012-2015.

Here is how each player reached the final of the tour's pinnacle non-slam event and my analysis of the matchup that lies ahead.

Medvedev's Path to the Final

Despite engaging in three-set battles throughout the round-robin stage of the event, Medvedev made light work of Casper Ruud in the semifinal, dispatching the Norwegian in two sets without facing a break point.

Throughout the tournament he's shown why he's becoming the most potent challenger to Djokovic's thrown, and it's only right that he has a chance to follow the steps of Djokovic, Roger Federer and Lleyton Hewitt as the only players to repeat as ATP Finals champions.

Medvedev has been superb behind his first serve all tournament. He's won over 75 percent of his first-serve points in each match and hasn't been too shabby behind his second either. In that department, Medvedev has won 60-plus percent of his points in every match.

Wins against Zverev and Sinner were played with trademark defense and deep ball-striking from Medvedev, who has soaked up pace and pressure all week to a ridiculous level. He did so again against Ruud in the semifinal.

Throughout the tournament, Medvedev has faced just nine break points in 12 sets, showcasing the ridiculous level at which he's served and played overall. Though Zverev almost beat him in the group stage, he wasn't able to convert on a break point himself.

The Russian is going to be a tough player to beat on Sunday.

Zverev's Path to the Final

While he hasn't been perfect, Zverev has been mightily impressive in his efforts. Wins against Djokovic, Hubert Hurkacz and Matteo Berrettini all included incredible serving performances, and Zverev looked as comfortable as possible on the ground against Djokovic.

The former champion has been flawless on serve, hitting 60 aces and just four double faults en route to the final. Those are numbers that any one of the best servers of all time would be thrilled with.

It'll be incredibly encouraging for Zverev to have battled through nerves and the toughest mental opponent in the game in Djokovic to reach this point. He wasn't able to get the job done against Medvedev in similar circumstances, and knowing that he's capable of pushing through a tough situation should serve him well.

In the lead up to the Finals, Zverev won the Vienna Open and reached the semifinals in Paris, so there may not be a hotter player on tour, but a win on Sunday would be the sweetest result of the lot.

Betting Pick

Just as I believed when Zverev and Medvedev met with a nearly identical price earlier in the event, I feel like this is a great number for Zverev.

He's done nothing to dispel the idea that he can go toe-to-toe with the man that has dominated him for years, and this is a perfect chance to get over the line as he did earlier in his career against Medvedev.

From a practical perspective, Zverev's +155 price gives him a 39% implied probability. His performance against Medvedev the first time around and in subsequent matches doesn't reflect that number.

Even against the US Open champion, Zverev produced more aces, a better second-serve win rate and the same number of break-point chances. Despite the history in this matchup, I still believe the value lies with Zverev.

Back him at a great price to win the last match of the season.

Pick: Zverev (+155)