Jannik Sinner vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas Odds
| Sinner Odds | -165 |
| Tsitsipas Odds | +135 |
| Over/Under | 40.5 (-110/-100) |
| Time | TV | 10 p.m. ET | ESPN+ |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
After coming through a war against Taylor Fritz in the fourth round, Stefanos Tsitsipas will look to stay alive in his quest for a first-ever Grand Slam title.
Challenging him will be young Jannik Sinner, who has only dropped one set to this point and is looking dangerous.
Is there value on the lower-seeded favorite here?
Jannik Sinner Fresh and Ready to Break Through
It's hard to argue that Sinner will one day be the No. 1 player in the world. The 20-year-old has continued to get better and better with each passing year, making his debut in the top 100 at the very end of the 2019 season and rising all the way to the top 10 just two years later.
The 2021 season saw Sinner go through his fair share of ups and downs, but in the end, the results were incredible. He won four titles and posted a 49-24 record across all levels, which most would have been thrilled about.
What the Italian wasn't able to achieve were some of the biggest career milestones in the sport. He was taken out in the Miami final, failing to capture that first Masters 1000, and he struggled once again to make an impact in Grand Slams. He was bounced in the first round at the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and failed to make it past the Round of 16 at Roland-Garros and the US Open.
Sinner's best run at a Grand Slam remains a quarterfinal appearance against Rafael Nadal at the 2020 French Open, but that could all change on Tuesday. He's favored in a quarterfinal match, and he's coming in with a head full of steam.
The rising star has dropped just one set here in Melbourne — which came in shocking fashion against Taro Daniel of all people — cruising in off a straight-set win over the tricky Alex de Minaur in front of a biased crowd in de Minaur's home country.
He looks fresh and rested, and his groundstrokes and serve — which he added MPH to last season — look crispier than ever.
Stefanos Tsitsipas Not Rated Highly by Markets
A year ago, Tsitsipas was considered a major contender for a Grand Slam. He became one of two men to ever come back from two sets to love against Nadal at a Grand Slam, disposing of the aging Spaniard in the quarters.
He didn't have his legs underneath him for the semifinals and was subsequently rolled by Daniil Medvedev, but no one really batted an eye at his straight-set loss. He'd be back here come Roland-Garros, and his Grand Slam was certainly imminent.
Well, he was. Tsitsipas became the hottest player on tour, ripping through draws left and right, winning the Monte Carlo Masters, taking home the title in Lyon and falling in two other finals. He took a two-set lead in the French Open against Novak Djokovic before perhaps the greatest tennis player ever mounted an all-time comeback.
It's hard to say that win broke the Greek, but he has yet to be the same. He lost in shocking fashion in straight sets to Frances Tiafoe at Wimbledon a couple of weeks later and then the losses really began to pile up.
He was taken out in the third round of the US Open by Carlos Alcaraz and lost a very winnable match against Nikoloz Basilashvili at Indian Wells. Shortly after that, an elbow injury would end his season.
That may have been long-winded, but I wanted to paint an accurate picture of the last year because the market is very low on Tsitsipas at the moment. Some of it has to do with the elbow injury, which was rather recent in mid-November, and some is the overall form he's displayed since Roland-Garros.
Sinner vs. Tsitsipas Betting Value & Pick
I painted with a broad brush when talking about Tsitsipas, so I'll get down to the nitty-gritty here. The Greek is going to be absolutely gassed here after going five sets with Fritz in the Round of 16 and playing two straight four-set matches prior to that.
The post-match stats shown after the win over Fritz told a story of a man who had to work incredibly hard to come through a winner, which is the last thing Tsitsipas wanted after dropping a set in two straight relatively-easy matches.
Most of this fell for this last year. Tsitsipas looked like he was ready to play another three sets with Nadal by the time he'd taken him out in the quarterfinals, bouncing around and losing nothing on his groundstrokes or with his court coverage. He then came out two days later completely flat, with no legs to speak of.
I'm having a hard time seeing it here for Tsitsipas.
The pace Sinner hits with is going to have him scrambling all over the court, and the matches will eventually take a toll. The Italian profiles very similarly to Fritz with a huge serve and forehand that can find great angles, and that was simply too much for Tsitsipas in the first three sets of his fourth-round match.
The difference here is that Fritz folded mentally and ran out of gas. That won't happen with a world-class player like Sinner.
Pick: Sinner -140
