Sonego vs. Bublik Odds
| Sonego Odds | -120 |
| Bublike Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | TBD |
| Time | How to Watch | 9:30 a.m. ET | |
| Odds via DraftKings. For tips on watching tennis matches, click here. | |
After last week's Davis Cup, this is the first week the men are back on tour as there are a few ATP 250 events taking place.
While those have been largely overshadowed by the more star-studded Laver Cup (and the retirement of one Roger Federer), there is still value to be found betting some of these events that may not attract as many eyeballs.
Let's delve into the final in Metz, France between Alexander Bublik and Lorenzo Sonego.
Sonego Enjoying Underdog Status
He may not technically be an underdog (the market is split on the match and averages out to being a pick 'em), but the Italian has embraced that role this week. After beating Aslan Karatsev in his first match, Sonego won both his quarterfinal (against Sebastian Korda) and semifinal (against defending champion Hubert Hurkacz) as a sizable dog.
With an underrated first serve, Sonego has the game to stick with just about anyone when he's landing enough of those initial serves. He landed an impressive 69% of his first serves against Hurkacz, which was key considering he won 84% of those points. Against an opponent like Bublik — who's a tad more competent on return — Sonego will need a repeat performance to pick up as many cheap points as he can get.
The other major question is whether Sonego has enough to win his fair share of baseline exchanges with Bublik. With question marks around his backhand, Sonego will have to gameplan a way to maximize the number of rallies played on the forehand wing.
Bublik Back at Home on Indoor Hard Courts
It's been yet another head-scratching year for Bublik. At times, he's looked disinterested (see: clay season), in other instances frustrated, and at a series of 250 events, incredible.
This week would fall into the latter category, as he's into his third ATP 250 final of the year. He won the first as a massive underdog in straight sets against Alexander Zverev, but dropped the second in Newport on the grass in a third-set tiebreak against Maxime Cressy.
Back on indoor hard courts where his serve and forehand can reign supreme, Bublik has been in his element this week. His combination of an overpowering game and strong athleticism for his size has once again vaulted him into title contention.
After needing a trio of three setters to reach this point (though it's worth noting, each of the three sets he has dropped this week came after reaching the 5-5 mark in close sets), Bublik was only forced to play three games in the semifinal before Stanislas Wawrinka retired.
Wins against a strong Holger Rune, an Emil Ruusuvuori who also prefers indoor hard courts and a tricky Evan Furness are nothing to scoff at, and with a 9-1 record playing indoors this season, the 25-year-old Bublik is going to be a stern test for Sonego.
Betting Value
Given the fact that the books have made him an underdog, I'm going to side with Bublik. He's got the bigger serve and forehand combo, is stronger at the net, moves better than someone like Hurkacz and has more pedigree on this surface than Sonego.
Given all that, I'm not sure he should be even money in this one. Sonego has proven people wrong all week, but this is arguably his toughest test of the tournament.
Pick: Bublik ML (+100 via DraftKings)
