In the first two days of ATP Sofia Open the matches have been thrilling battle after thrilling battle.
The final two matchups of the day, Gerasimov vs. Pospisil and Kuzmanov vs. Musetti, combined to last over five hours and include three tiebreakers.
If those matches are any indication, we're in store for another intense week despite the event only being at the 250 level.
Let's get into Wednesday's slate and where I see value.
Match times are subject to change.
Andreas Seppi (-137) vs. Illya Marchenko (+110)
5:00 a.m. ET
In a matchup of two qualifiers, both should be really hungry to get a win with a solid opportunity on the line.
Andreas Seppi comes into the first-round matchup off a disappointing loss to Timofey Skatov at the Astana Open, but it wasn't necessarily due to poor play from the Italian. Skatov played at a high level to get by the 37-year-old, though Seppi did falter towards the end of the match.
Seppi got through Cem Ilkel and Alex Donski to reach the first round and in his second match, it was his serving that gave him a massive boost. Seppi won 91% of the points on his first serve, getting ahead in rallies and refusing to allow Donski into points. He was able to attack Donski's second serve well, winning 62% of the points in that regard, and it allowed him to cruise to victory.
Illya Marchenko beat Marco Cecchinato and Tomas Machac en route to the main draw, saving an impressive 66% of the break points he allowed. While he's earned his spot in the first round, I think his price here is skewed due to his ability on indoor hard courts.
Marchenko has excelled throughout his career on the surface, posting his best results on tour playing on indoor hard courts. He beat Andy Murray in a Challenger final earlier this year on the surface, showing the comfortability with which he has.
Despite this, Seppi's ball-striking has been solid since returning to hard courts in the summer, and I think he'll be able to overpower Marchenko because of it. If he can come anywhere close to his 91% first serve point conversion rate, he'll make return games extremely hard for the Ukranian who relies on his serve to carry him through matches. Without added chances to break, Marchenko will struggle.
Getting Seppi at -137 is a great value proposition, as the 57.8% implied probability on him isn't giving him enough credit on the ground or for the way he's serving.
Pick: Andreas Seppi -137 via Caesars Sportsbook
Miomir Kecmanovic (-235) vs. Gianluca Mager (+185)
9:10 a.m. ET
Gianluca Mager took care of business as an underdog against Adrian Mannarino in the first round, and I like his chances of pulling off another surprise win.
He comes into the match against Miomir Kecmanovic very familiar with the Serbian. The two have frequently played doubles together and met once before at the US Open in 2020, where Kecmanovic pulled out a 5-set win.
Mager put together a complete performance against Mannarino, hitting 7 aces to only 2 double faults and attacking behind his serves, winning 77% of the points behind his first and a whopping 82% behind his second. Kecmanovic did not look as sharp in hi first round against Adrian Andreev, as he struggled to put away the world number 319 and ended up winning 7-6 (7), 6-4.
The inconsistency in his ground strokes hurt Kecmanovic in longer rallies, and I think the issue will hurt him more against Mager, who is capable of being far more offensive than Andreev. It's not a new problem for Kecmanovic, who has struggled to maintain his level throughout matches in the post-grass court season.
He's lost all 3+ set matches he's engaged in, largely due to an inability to remain solid in key moments. Look for Mager to take advantage of that and find another upset.
Pick: Gianluca Mager +185 via FanDuel
