The Indiana Fever enter the week as the hottest team in the WNBA, having won four straight and eight of their past 10. After a 1-8 start, Indiana is 16-8 in its previous 24 games and is one game above .500 for the first time this year.
Despite Indiana's rough start, the criticism hurled at rookie point guard Caitlin Clark and head coach Christie Sides always seemed unfair. After all, seven of the Fever's first eight losses were against Connecticut, New York, Seattle and Las Vegas — four teams that have already clinched a postseason berth.
As good as Indiana's been, it's surprising to see it as high as a 12-point favorite when it hosts a Sparks team with the fewest wins (seven) in the WNBA.
Los Angeles hasn't always been competitive, as evidenced by its recent 18-point home loss against Atlanta, but this is one spot where bettors should be looking to back Los Angeles. So, let's get to my Sparks vs. Fever prediction.
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever Prediction
The Indiana Fever will be double-digit favorites for the first time this season on Wednesday. However, those odds seem a bit lofty as Los Angeles will be looking to make amends after a lackluster effort against the Dream.
The Sparks have shown an ability to bounce back from poor performances and, given the opponent, I like their chances to continue that trend.
Sparks vs. Fever Pick: Sparks at +12 or better
Sparks vs. Fever Odds
| Sparks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 173.5 -110/-110 | +575 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 173.5 -110/-110 | -900 |
Los Angeles Sparks: Perimeter Shooting has Improved
Although the Sparks haven't had much success, they've managed to pull off a few upsets with victories over the Aces (two) and Liberty (one).
Thus, this is a Los Angeles team that's capable of big moments. The Sparks remain a work in progress under their second-year head coach Curt Miller.
Before the season began, Miller outlined two goals he wanted to see from his players: Adopt a more up-tempo style and become an above-average shooting team from the perimeter.
So far, Los Angeles has been able to improve in both areas. Based on last season's numbers, the Sparks moved from seventh to fifth (80.87 possessions per 40 minutes) in pace and are up from 11th to seventh (7.3) in 3-point field goals per game.
The Sparks' perimeter shooting should allow them to stay within reach of the Fever. In fact, Los Angeles has outshot Indiana 57-51 from distance over the two earlier meetings this year.
This is one matchup where a faster, frenetic pace should suit the Sparks.
Indiana Fever: Why is this Spread so Big?
Indiana's power rating seemed to take a leap following its 100-81 road victory last Friday over Chicago. The rivalry between Clark and Chicago's Angel Reese makes everything about their matchups even more polarizing.
It's almost like there was a perception that Indiana's victory somehow cemented its arrival on the big stage.
If we look at Indiana's wins during this four-game streak, three came against teams with a combined .323 winning percentage. While I know the Fever can't do more than play the teams on their schedule, the key here is not to get too carried away.
Indiana still has a long way to go to catch up to the teams in the league's top half. It's the only team with a winning record that has a negative Net Rating (-3.6).
Moreover, Indiana's Net Rating is closer to that of Los Angeles (-8.8) than Seattle (+5.4), which is directly above it in the standings.
Those numbers don't exactly justify the Fever being a 12-point favorite, even against the worst team in the league.
Sparks vs. Fever: Take the Points
I could go on and on about the value of backing double-digit underdogs. According to our Action Labs database, teams in this spot are a robust 332-254-18 (56.7%) against the spread (ATS) for +56.88 units.
This season alone, double-digit 'dogs are 35-15 (70%) ATS. The Sparks have certainly played a part, as they've been the most profitable team with a 10-3 (76.9%) ATS mark.
However, the angle I find most intriguing is how the Sparks perform after opening as a double-digit 'dog when coming off a loss of 12 or more points. In this spot, our database shows that Los Angeles is a perfect 4-0 ATS this season.
I trust Miller's ability to get a good response from his players against the Fever team, who are a bit overvalued.
Sparks vs. Fever Pick: Sparks +12 or Better
