Mystics vs. Wings Odds
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 161.5 -115/ -106 | +215 |
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 161.5 -115/ -106 | -260 |
The Washington Mystics take on the Dallas Wings in a Sunday ABC game missing a couple big names but remaining loaded with plenty of intrigue for bettors.
The Mystics will be without starting center Shakira Austin for the third straight game and without star Elena Delle Donne for the first game after she left Friday's game late. Delle Donne is sitting out Sunday with an ankle injury.
As such, bettors must navigate how much those two big absences impact the Mystics, as well as how the Wings will attack this Mystics team without its top two frontcourt players.
Washington Mystics
The Mystics will likely turn to Tianna Hawkins and Myisha Hines-Allen to replace Austin and EDD on the frontline. In a backup role, it will mean more minutes for Amanda Zahui B., who has gotten into 11 games this season but played just 73 total minutes. These are all massive downgrades.
Hawkins is a solid defender and decent rebounder, and compared to Austin, she is probably the closest to being able to replace Austin's production. It's not surprising that when accounting for just Austin being out, the books seemed to only give the Mystics' opponents about a point more than normal.
In fact, the Mystics offense looked a bit more free at times in the last two games, averaging nearly 100 points per game in a pair of matchups with the Dream since Austin went out.
As it sometimes is the case with injury stacking in the NFL, it was the second injury that really moved this line. With a fully healthy Mystics team, I'd project them to be about a five-point favorite over the Wings on a neutral court. Flip that to the Wings at home, and the Mystics should still be favored by 2. As we just noted, the books made Austin worth about a point in the first two games without her, so we can adjust to Dallas +1.
But this number is Wings -6!
That means either the books have Delle Donne worth seven points (which would be more than any peak NBA player), or it means that they are anticipating some of this injury stacking penalty for the Mystics losing their starting frontcourt.
Dallas Wings
So are the Wings going to take advantage of this missing frontcourt?
Interestingly enough, it's not necessarily from an offensive perspective that I ask this question because the two replacements for Washington are both defensive-minded. Instead, it's better to think of it this way: Are the Wings going to be extra happy to not have Austin and EDD attacking them in the paint?
The Wings allow the second-fewest shots from 0-3 feet of any team in the WNBA, and their defense on two-pointers in general is quite solid. No team has allowed fewer layups (by percent of total shots) than the Wings this season, and in part thanks to Teaira McCowan, they have one of the more stout interior defenses.
The Wings are also already one of the top rebounding teams in the WNBA, so while that might become even more of an edge against a backup frontcourt, it's not an area of weakness that is being less burdened with these two Mystics out.
So while Austin and EDD are indeed essential players, I'm not sure this is the worst matchup for them to miss.
Mystics-Wings Pick
As you can probably tell from the tenor of this article, I am leaning towards taking the points. I think this is one of the most fascinating games of the season from a gambling perspective.
It's worth noting books have taken sharp money on the Wings here, so I may be somewhat alone in this thinking.
Because the side is just a lean for me, I'll give out a player prop as well.
In the relatively limited time this season without either Austin or EDD on the court, Brittney Sykes has the highest Usage Rate on the Mystics. It's a bit of a small sample, but the good news is that she also has the lowest point total of the three Mystics starters likely to have props available today. I'll be playing Sykes Over 12.5 Points at -113 at FanDuel.
Lean: Mystics +6
Pick: Brittney Sykes Over 12.5 Points |
