WNBA Finals Player Props
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | +172 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 172.5 -110 / -110 | -205 |
The 2023 WNBA Finals between the Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty is finally here. So, let's analyze three specific player props worth monitoring throughout the series.
And following a 6-1 week, we're feeling good about our reads here … for now, at least.
We begin with a woman who could've been Eastern Conference Finals MVP, if such a thing existed — Betnijah Laney.
Betnijah Laney, New York Liberty
The sportsbooks have finally caught on to Laney's excellence. Over the past few weeks, her point total over/under sat around 12.5 or 13.5.
In Laney's past 16 games — including six in the playoffs — she's scored at least 15 points on 13 occasions. And in the games she's fallen short, her totals generally haven't been close as she scored three, nine and 13 points — the latter being the exception.
I've noted this on other prop pieces where I've played Laney overs in recent weeks, and her volume, which generally coincides with these overs, is a trend worth monitoring in the WNBA Finals.
Laney took at least 10 shots in each of the 13 games in which she hit the over. In the three games she went under, she had less than 10 shot attempts. The shot volume and point totals have been 100% correlated.
Moreover, she's generally been efficient and has shot at least 50% from the field in 10 of her past 16 games.
Now, she's pegged at over/under 15.5 or 16.5 points for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals, but that doesn't impact much because 17 points has been Laney's tipping point.
In those past 16 games, Laney has scored at least 16 or 17 points 12 times.
Lastly, Laney played in all five against the Aces this season and in those games, she scored 17 twice, 13, three and two. However, given her recent play, I still like her overs heading into the WNBA Finals.
Bet to watch: Laney Points Overs
Chelsea Gray, Las Vegas Aces
With Gray, one of my favorite dime-droppers in all of hoops, I'm always looking for her assists.
Gray's assist prop begins at over/under 6.5 for Game 1, and will likely remain there for most of the series. She's also been listed at 5.5 or 7.5 points, which is worth monitoring.
Gray has been more up and down in recent outings. In five playoff games, she's tallied the following assist totals: seven, nine, four, eight and four.
If we go back to her final 12 regular season contests, we have nine games of over 6.5 assists, a 10th over 5.5 and eight over 7.5.
The hit rate isn't as high as Laney has been on points, but it's still very high over the past two months.
Against the Liberty, Gray has put up 11, nine, six, six and five assists.
Bet to watch: Gray Assist Overs
Jonquel Jones, New York Liberty
This, by far, is the trickiest among the group because as Jones' rebound-tear continues, her prop continues to elevate.
Jones' prop was recently at 9.5 rebounds. It then went up to 10.5, and is now at 11.5 for Game 1. Earlier in the year, you could find this at 8.5 and lower. However, those days are long gone because she has averaged just over 11 rebounds per contest since the All-Star Break, including the postseason.
Before the break, Jones pulled down 10 or more rebounds just three times. Since then, she's had 10 or more boards in 17 contests, including all six of her playoff outings.
Continuing to use the post-All-Star stretch, Jones has gone over 11.5 boards in 13 of 28 games. Narrow it down some more, and we have five overs in her past six games, all in the playoffs.
A rebound prop of 11.5 is a lot to stomach, but Jones — who hasn't played fewer than 33 minutes in any playoff game — has been doing it. If the over/under gets set at 12.5 boards — and it might — I might just have to throw my hands up. Though, I'd still consider it.
Against the Aces, Jones' rebounds have been as follows: 15, 14, 10, eight and six.
