The WNBA has three games on the slate for Friday, July 12:
- Mercury vs. Fever at 7:30 p.m. ET
- Aces vs. Dream at 10 p.m. ET
- Lynx vs. Storm at 10 p.m. ET
Read below for my WNBA first basket picks for each game tonight.
WNBA First Basket Picks: Friday, July 12
Brittney Griner First Basket (+300)
Mercury vs. Fever | 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
Phoenix has won the tipoff in 10-of-12 games with Brittney Griner as the jumper, which is hardly surprising given her towering 6’9” frame and 7’3” wingspan. Indiana struggles in this department too, so it’s highly likely that the Mercury secure the first possession.
They love to open the game through Griner, who has taken Phoenix’s first shot in 7-of-12 starts (58%). That mark ranks second across the WNBA (minimum 10 starts) behind only Teaira McCowan.
Indiana allows 43% of their opponent’s first-quarter field goal attempts to come from the midrange or paint, not including the restricted area. This percentage is the fourth largest across the league. Griner thrives from these locations, and they form a large chunk of her shot diet.
Finally, the Mercury and Fever have played once this season. Griner took the first shot of the game, got fouled, and knocked down free throws to cash the first basket.
Overall, her first basket usage and matchup against a Fever defense that allows the fourth most points per game to centers are desirable enough to fire on +300 odds at a full unit. I would play it down to +270 odds.
Kelsey Plum First Basket (+650)
Aces vs. Dream | 7:30 p.m. ET, ION
Las Vegas has owned the first shot in 66% of their games, while Atlanta sits at a measly 38%. Look for the Aces to control the first possession.
Kelsey Plum averages the third most corner 3-point attempts per game in the WNBA, and she meets a Dream defense that surrenders the most corner 3s. Atlanta has defended the rim well in terms of opponent’s efficiency, so Las Vegas may explore kick-outs to a higher degree than usual.
Plum has also taken Las Vegas’ first shot in 28.5% of her starts, which is second on the team behind only A’ja Wilson (33.3%).
I recommend playing this line at half of a unit and down to +600 odds.
Jewell Loyd First Basket (+700)
Lynx vs. Storm | 10 p.m. ET, ION
The Lynx have struggled all season to win tipoffs, which cannot be said of the Storm. Therefore, I expect Seattle to acquire the first attempt.
Minnesota bleeds shots from the deep paint and midrange, but opponents do not perform well at the rim against them. That bodes well for Jewell Loyd. First, she averages the third most midrange attempts per game across the league. Second, teammates Nneka Ogwumike and Ezi Magbegor may find less offensive success than usual.
Plus, Loyd has taken Seattle’s first attempt in 27.2% of her starts. That’s tied with Magbegor for the largest percentage of any Storm player.
I would play this at half of a unit and down to +600 odds.
