The WNBA has two games scheduled for Friday, June 28: Dream vs. Sun at 7:30 p.m. ET, and Sparks vs. Mercury at 10 p.m. ET. However, we'll be focusing on the second of the two matchups between Los Angeles and Phoenix.
Read below for my two WNBA first basket picks for Sparks-Mercury tonight.
Sparks vs Mercury First Basket Picks: Friday, June 28
Kia Nurse First Sparks Basket (+650)
Sparks vs. Mercury | 10 p.m. ET, ION
Since Brittney Griner returned from injury six games ago, Phoenix has given up the second fewest restricted area attempts and fewest paint attempts. The 6’9” veteran continues to be a dominant interior presence. Over that span, opponents easily averaged the most 3-point shots against them.
Enter Kia Nurse, who leads Los Angeles in 3-point attempts per game and has taken the Sparks’ first shot at the third largest rate (17.6% of starts). She also ranks second on the team in field-goal attempts per game and first-quarter field goal attempts per game.
Given this analysis, it’s highly surprising that she owns the longest odds of any Spark to score their first basket.
I suggest playing this line at three-quarters of a unit and down to +400 odds.
Brittney Griner First Basket (+250)
Sparks vs. Mercury | 10 p.m. ET, ION
Griner remains a hyper-elite jumper, as she has won 5-of-6 tipoffs so far. Therefore, it’s likely that Phoenix secures the first possession.
Griner has taken Phoenix’s first shot in 3-of-6 starts, and she faces a Los Angeles defense that took a massive rim protection hit when rookie Cameron Brink tore her ACL. Look for Griner to overwhelm the Spark’s porous interior defense and continue her first basket usage rampage.
The line just has enough value at +250 odds in my opinion, but I would not play it any lower. Throwing three-quarters of a unit on it is my recommendation.
