WNBA Odds, Picks, Predictions: 3 Friday Night Bets, Including Fever vs. Storm (July 1)

The theme of today's article is simple: How much can we trust recent form? As I noted in my preview earlier this week, chaos has been the only consistent thing about the past month of the WNBA, and we saw it again yesterday with a wild game in New York that was wholly unpredictable.

As we lead up to the All-Star Break, it feels like anything is possible; whereas, it seems likely that the puzzle pieces really start to fall into place after the break when teams are a little better rested and hyper-focused on that stretch run.

So how much can we trust chaos?! That's the beauty of trying to figure this all out. There can still be edges found, and I hope to highlight a few for you below.

We've got three games on the docket for Friday, so let's jump right into it.

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WNBA Odds, Picks

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Sparks vs. Wings

Injuries/News

The Wings have two key players both listed as probable for tonight's game: Satou Sabally and Allisha Gray. Sabally has missed the past seven games, while Gray has been out just the two most recent games. With those two back, the Wings would have a full healthy roster.

For the Sparks, it's just Rae Burrell and Amanda Zahui B. who have been out all season on the injury report, so L.A. has more than adjusted to their absence this season.

Run the pick back?

As I noted in the intro, the theme du jour is how much to weigh recent performance. The Wings are fresh off arguably their worst game of the season, a 28-point loss to the previously 5-14 Minnesota Lynx. They also lost the game prior to that at home to the also-sub-.500 Phoenix Mercury.

On the other side, the Sparks took an L in their most recent outing, but it was a strong showing against the Aces, and they were able to defeat the quietly surging Storm in the game before that.

Of course, for the season as a whole, the Wings have been the far superior team. They are two games ahead in the actual win-loss column, but the gap is even more noticeable when factoring in net rating and strength of schedule. By Basketball-Reference's Simple Rating System, the gap between the sixth-place Wings and the 11th-place Sparks is basically the same as the gap from the Wings and the Mystics — a noticeable difference.

So, with that in mind, let's lean away from the spread. And let's run back my pick the last time these two teams played. I covered this game before their June 19 matchup, and the pick was an easy over. I won't run back the entire full logic layout here, but here's the TL;DR (too long; don't remember, in this case):

• The Wings are second in the league in fastbreak points; the Sparks allow the most fastbreak points per game in the W
• Only two teams take a higher percentage of their shots from two than the Sparks; the Wings have the second-worst two-point defense in the league
• Conversely, the Wings both take and make the fourth-most threes per game in the W; the Sparks have the second-worst 3-point defense in the W
• The Sparks rank second in the league in points in the paint; the Wings allow the third-most points in the paint per game
• The Sparks are third in the league in points off turnovers; the Wings are third-worst in terms of giving up points off turnovers

Basically every factor points towards both teams hitting the over, and it's no surprise it was an easy win last time out. The line opened at 164.5 and I recommended playing up to 167.5. The total came in at 174, and that was even with both teams shooting poorly from the free throw line, and the Sparks going 5-20 from deep. I'm going to recommend this all the way up to 170 today.

Pick:  Over 164 (Play up to 170)

Aces vs. Lynx

Injuries/News

Both teams, as of writing, have fully clean bills of health. Knock on wood there aren't any late scratches (or late un-scratches as we had with Chelsea Gray in the most recent Aces outing!)

The ultimate recency test

The theme continues with this matchup, and arguably has never peaked harder. The Lynx are fresh off their biggest win of the season, the aforementioned slaughtering of the Wings. If you only saw their past six results, you would never guess this is a 6-14 team:

• Two-point loss to the Storm
• One-point loss to the Aces
• 13-point win over the Mercury
• 12-point win over the Mercury
• Three-point loss to the Sky
• 28-point win over the Wings

On the other hand, this doesn't exactly look like the last six games of the best team in the league:

• Eight-point win over the Wings
• One-point win over the Lynx
• Nine-point loss to the Sky (which included the largest-ever blown lead in WNBA history)
• One-point loss to the Mystics
• Six-point win over the Sparks
• 10-point loss to the Storm

I was actually a little surprised (and annoyed) that the books didn't read too much into these past weeks and still made the Aces pretty significant favorites. With a well-set line, I'm going to once again look to the over/under, and I once again like the over.

Going off a one-game sample is obviously reckless, but I will note that the last time these two teams played, the total cleared 190, and there wasn't too much fluky about it. Neither team posted crazy shooting totals from three, or got to the line an exorbitant amount, etc.

Both teams have also been plus money on the over, season to date, and it seems like the books haven't quite adjusted to the league as a whole, as betting the overs has actually been positive 1.8 percent ROI this season — a rarity.

I am also going to add the Aces on the moneyline (here's where I wish same game parlays were available for the W) because even though I think it could be a close game, I do think the Aces aren't going to let another game slip even as they are somewhat limping to the All-Star Break.

Pick: Aces moneyline and over 173

Fever vs. Storm

Injuries/News

In what's becoming an excellent secondary theme to this article, both teams are pretty healthy, with only Mercedes Russell on the injury list for this game, as she has been for almost a month for the Storm now.

I really hope I am not jinxing the league with all these clean or nearly clean bills of health!

A contender re-emerging?

The Storm made an absolute statement last time out, taking down everyone's darling Aces by double-digits in front of an awesome Climate Pledge Arena crowd.

If I were to believe in letdown games, this would have letdown written all over it: Coming off that awesome win; double-digit favorite; playing the worst team in the league, but I'm not a huge believer in letdown games, and if I were, the Storm aren't the type of team to have those games.

While the rap on Tina Charles these days is pretty negative, she seemed to be pretty content cheering on her new squad from the bench during the stretch run of her first game in green.

The rumor is that she didn't sign in Seattle during the offseason because she didn't love her potential role (i.e. sitting on the bench down the stretch run of hugely important games). However, if Seattle felt comfortable bringing her in mid-season, one has to imagine that maybe that mentality flipped for Charles.

If so, this team starts to look a lot more viable when it comes to the WNBA futures market.

We'll save that for a different article, but all of that is to say: I don't see this team putting up a stinker tonight. I also am absolutely terrified of what is a crazy-high 12-point spread. So with that in mind, let's go back to the well: Over!

However, I could see the Storm absolutely shutting down the Fever, so I'm going to isolate the Seattle side. I know this isn't available at every book, but Caesar's already has a line for it, and a couple more big books should have it later in the day.

Pick: Seattle over 86.5 points