Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse Odds, Pick & Prediction: How to Bet 50-1 Favorite (Saturday, July 27)

Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse odds for Saturday, July 27.

Few in boxing have rewritten history like Claressa Shields.

Now, the two-time Olympic boxing gold medalist has a new challenge ahead: heavyweight.

Shields (14-0, 2 KOs), the undisputed middleweight champion of the world – formerly champion at super welterweight and super middleweight – is moving up to take on Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse (7-1, 2 KOs).

Lepage-Joanisse is the reigning and defending WBC world heavyweight champion, who won the title via split decision against Abril Argentina Vidal in March in Montreal. Lepage-Joanisse, a Quebec native, got a very favorable decision here. Two 97-93 scorecards in her favor were outrageous.

Also on the line in this fight is the vacant WBO light heavyweight title (we'll explain how that is possible shortly).

Shields is a -5000 favorite, but we're gonna find value here, don't you worry.

Here's my Shields vs. Lepage-Joanisse pick and prediction for Saturday.

Shields vs. Lepage-Joanisse Breakdown & Analysis

These are 50-50 fights: Seniesa Estrada vs. Yokasta Valle, or Tyson Fury vs. Oleksandr Usyk, or Natasha Jonas vs. Mikaela Mayer. This is emphatically not that. Those were and are genuine toss-ups, all of which warrant rematches – though only one is likely to happen, for now.

Moving up from middleweight to heavyweight for men would mean a jump from 160 pounds to 200-plus. It's why many believe Roy Jones Jr. jumping from light heavyweight – which has a 175-pound limit – to heavyweight (though he weighed in at 193 pounds to beat heavyweight champion John Ruiz) ruined his career.

Because despite winning against a heavyweight champion who's bigger, stronger and weighed in 33 pounds heavier, as amazing as it was, came with a tax. Jones dropped back down to light heavyweight after and was never the same again. He struggled and narrowly beat Antonio Tarver by majority decision eight months later. Then, he was famously knocked out by Tarver in their May 2004 rematch in Round 2, when Jones was 35.

Why is this less concerning in women's boxing? Because the heavyweight class doesn't start at 200 pounds like it does for the men; it starts at 175 pounds, at least for the WBC.

This might get confusing, so I'll be as clear as I can.

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As in men's boxing, the light heavyweight limit is at 175, but for the WBC, they're calling it heavyweight because that's where the bigger weight class starts for them. Generally, anything between 175-200 pounds would be considered cruiserweight, but the WBC has never had a women's champion at cruiserweight.

Lepage-Joanisse weighed in at a touch over 173 pounds for her win over Vidal, 2.5 pounds more than her opponent. It was also the lightest she's weighed in her career. For her other bouts, she's lived between 178 and 199.25 at weigh-ins outside of her first WBC world heavyweight title shot, where she weighed 231 pounds against the 236.5-pound champion Alejandra Jimenez in August 2017. Lepage Joanisse was stopped in Round 3 though never dropped.

Shields has weighed between and 153 and 168 her entire career, and she's fought her last three fights under the 160-pound middleweight limit. She hasn't fought even at the 168-pound super middleweight limit since January 2018.

Shields herself made it plain: She's coming to weigh in at under 175 pounds.

"The WBO call it the light heavy, the WBC call it the heavyweight – I really have no idea," Shields said. "The confusion is the inequality between women's and men's boxing once again. I'm going to come in at 168-170 pounds. She's going to come in at 175 because that's the weight. The WBC is calling it the heavyweight division; it's 175-plus.

"I'm just as confused as you. I'll be under 175. I don't care what she weighs in at. She can come in at 180, 190, 200 – that's not my problem. It's just that we're fighting for the heavyweight title, and that's it."

Oh, and by the way, height? Shields is 5-foot-8, and Lepage Joanisse is 5-foot-6. Shields has a 68-inch reach, and Lepage Joanisse's is unknown.

Shields vs. Lepage-Joanisse Prediction & Pick

This is a simple one for me. Shields is much, much, much better, even though she'll be smaller. And she doesn't knock people out.

One thing to consider is that Shields is moving up in weight, which theoretically could make her stronger. She's facing an opponent who has been stopped and has defensive holes. But while Lepage-Joanisse has been TKO'd, she was also nearly 60 pounds heavier than she weighed in at her last fight.

I'll just take the safest play and roll with Shields to win by decision. It's just likely to happen. Shields hasn't gotten a TKO or KO in nearly seven years, and despite the lack of quality names on her resume, she generally wins on points.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke!

The Pick: Claressa Shields by decision (-250 at BetMGM)