Edgar Berlanga vs. Padraig McCrory Odds
Here's everything you need to know about Edgar Berlanga vs. Padraig McCrory on Saturday, Feb. 24 – our expert boxing prediction and pick.
Here we go again with yet another test that Berlanga needs to pass.
The super middleweight slugger is still undefeated, though heading into tonight's DAZN event (8 p.m. ET), it doesn't feel that way.
Berlanga's record (21-0, 16 KOs) is one of the oddest career arcs in sports. He began his professional tenure with 16 consecutive first-round knockouts and now seemingly can't KO anyone else, boxing his way to five successive unspectacular unanimous decisions in which he's been picked apart online one excessively looping right hook at a time.
His opponent this weekend, Padraig McCrory (18-0, 9 KOs), is also undefeated and has the potential to be another European who is little known in the U.S. but impresses in his American maiden voyage.
Berlanga is a sizeable favorite this Saturday, and for good reason, but he is the smallest favorite he's been in his career, according to Pro Boxing Odds' tracker.
Let me tell you why that with my Berlanga vs. McCrory pick and prediction.
Berlanga vs. McCrory Breakdown & Analysis
We last saw Berlanga on June 24, when he beat former middleweight championship challenger Jason Quigley by unanimous decision, a fight I was actually covering in person.
Berlanga looked powerful at times and overly conservative at others. It's a glimpse of who he's been since the KO streak ended. He has yet to impress in a fight that has gone beyond a round, but he did look better against Quigley in totality than he has since beating Demond Nicholson more than two years prior, which was his first decision victory.
Berlanga dropped Quigley in Rounds 3, 5 and twice in Round 12, by far his best round since 2020. Between Rounds 5 and 12, he lost enough rounds that it worried you if he'd even win the bout.
Why? Because Quigley's movement was problematic for Berlanga, who struggled to cut off the ring and had been telegraphing his punches while in pursuit.
McCrory will almost definitely deploy a similar strategy led by movement and defense, especially knowing that he won't overpower Berlanga, who would decapitate McCrory in a firefight.
The Irish contender is nine years older than the 26-year-old Berlanga, and a loss would be devastating to his championship aspirations. McCrory has seen some success in his career, the highlight coming with an impressive fifth-round stoppage over Sergei Gorokhov in August 2021, winning the WBC international super middleweight title, making two successful title defenses before winning the IBO light heavyweight title in October 2022, stopping hometown kid Leon Bunn in Frankfurt, Germany, in six rounds.
Bunn entered the bout 18-0 with nine KOs, and the odds prior reflected a true 50-50 fight.
McCrory, in totality, is 2-0 with two knockouts as a career B-side fighter, so he's used to playing spoiler when a promotional underdog despite his low KO rate.
McCrory, however, has done that largely with his power, and while Berlanga has been dropped once and could be hit, he's the biggest puncher with any pedigree whom the Irishman has seen.
Berlanga and McCrory are both 6-foot-1, and Berlanga presents a 73-inch reach. McCrory's is unlisted, though in terms of reach, he doesn't exactly appear to be Sonny Liston, who was famously 84 inches (seven feet) despite standing at just over 6 feet tall.
Additionally, both are ranked contenders at super middleweight. Berlanga is ranked no lower than No. 11 and no higher than No. 5 by the four alphabet organizations, meaning a knockout victory could bring him within striking distance of becoming a mandatory challenger if an organization – the WBO in particular – deems him worthy depending on what shakes out in the coming months.
McCrory is ranked only by the WBA but is actually the No. 3 contender, five spots ahead of Berlanga.
Berlanga vs. McCrory Prediction & Pick
Berlanga needs a knockout, though I've kind of said this for three or so straight fights. Given that this is his second bout under the Matchroom umbrella and since biting Roamer Alexis Angulo's ear and getting suspended, followed by his fallout with Top Rank thereafter.
That said, my favorite bet is Edgar Berlanga to score a knockdown. It's available at +100 odds at bet365 or -108 at FanDuel (use the QuickSlip below), as of this writing.
I think Berlanga wins this fight, and I'll likely be throwing his moneyline in some parlays, but I don't know how he gets it done. Earlier this week, he was about even money to win on points and better than +200 to win by decision, which has since even out at +130 to +150 each in multiple prominent books.
After his win over Quigley, Berlanga wondered aloud why he couldn't do what he did in that Round 12 for the whole fight, and realistically, you could burn yourself out that way. But I do think he scores at least a knockdown and leaves with a victory.
My lean would probably be Berlanga by KO, but I'd be hesitant to actually bet it given McCrory's quality and Berlanga's recent showings.
Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.
The Pick: Edgar Berlanga to score a knockdown (+100 at bet365)
