Mayweather vs. Paul Odds
The truth is stranger than fiction, isn't it?
This Sunday the greatest boxer of our generation, the retired and undefeated 15-time world champion in five different weight classes and former pound-for-pound king Floyd Mayweather Jr. (50-0, 27 KOs) returns to the ring to fight YouTube star Logan Paul (0-1, 0 KOs) at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida.
If you're doing a double take, you've read that correctly — yes, Paul isn't known for being a fighter but rather a YouTuber star who has 23 million subscribers on a page featuring daily vlogs that consist of everything from picking up girls using his puppy to buying and selling Pokemon cards to pranks in which he covers himself with peanut butter before walking through a dog park.
Before moving to YouTube, Paul gained popularity on Vine, the now defunct social media platform which allowed users to post six second videos, eventually building enough of a following to appear on Law & Order: Special Victims Unit and Bizaardvark, an American comedy series that aired on the Disney Channel.
His following is impressive enough for anyone to take notice but participating in the Sweet Science is another thing all together. While Mayweather is an International Boxing Hall of Fame fighter, going 50-0 during a career spanning from 1996 through 2017, Paul is just 0-1 in his fighting career, failing to defeat fellow YouTuber KSI in a split decision loss November 2019.
Roll your eyes, scrunch your face up in disgust, hate it or love it — this is is a "legalized bank robbery" for the boxer who's nickname is 'Money' as this fight is sure to garner plenty of eye balls with Mayweather and Paul being two of the most polarizing figures in pop culture. In a sport primarily based on tribalism where the biggest fights feature boxers of opposing ethnicities fighting one another, this matchup as did Mayweather's last fight, a 2017 match against UFC superstar Conor McGregor, capitalizes on the public's hunger for the next Great White Hype while also delivering a spectacle that will entertain the masses.
Hype aside, this is nothing more than an exhibition —an eight round non-sanctioned bout with no judges and no official winner declared. Although the fight can be stopped due to knockout as well as the referee's discretion, there will be no scorecards. Despite that, oddsmakers opened Mayweather as a -5,000 favorite and similar to the McGregor fight with square money betting the dog, this has since been bet down to a -700 with Paul coming in as a +400 underdog.
Since there is no official scorecard and no official winner, the only way to win is by stoppage. Can Paul shock the world and pull off the upset or will Mayweather continue to show why he's dominated the sport of boxing for 19 years?
Let's analyze the fight and find out!
Fight Analysis
Let's be honest, we all know Logan Paul shouldn't be in the same ring as Floyd Mayweather Jr. In many ways it's an insult that this fight is taking place as Mayweather is one of the greatest fighters in the history of the sport, an International Boxing Hall of Fame fighter who's gone undefeated in his 19-year career with a 50-0 record and 27 knockouts with wins over Manny Pacquiao, Saul "Canelo" Alvarez, Oscar De La Hoya, Shane Mosley, Diego Corrales, Miguel Cotto, Juan Manuel Marquez.
As Mayweather said in his promotional interviews, 'I ain't gotta use my A game, my B game, my C game. I can use my Z game,' Mayweather said at the event in Miami. 'Don't even gotta hit him hard. Result's going to be the same.'
He's right but more importantly, Mayweather is one of the best defensive fighters of all time. Mayweather's patented shoulder roll and cat quick reflexes has shielded him from a lot of punishment, making opposing fighters feel frustrated while looking completely silly. Pacquiao is a Hall of Fame fighter who is the only eight-division world champion in the history of boxing as well as the first boxer to win the lineal championship in five different weight classes but could only land 81 out of for 429 punches in a 12 round fight against Mayweather.
Alvarez is the current pound-for-pound best boxer alive but in his 2012 match against Mayweather, Alvarez did a better job connecting with the ropes than Mayweather. Mayweather has the highest plus-minus in boxing according to Compubox, landing 47% of his punches while opponents land just 22% of their punches for a +25 plus-minus.
As Roy Jones Jr said in his interview with TMZ Sports, "You're talking about the greatest defensive fighter of all time, so it's very hard to hit him," adding that he doesn't give Paul a chance as boxers couldn't hit him, so how could a non boxer hit him?
Mayweather is 44 years old, five years removed from his last serious fight and three years removed from his match against Conor McGregor but unlike many of his contemporaries, he's consistently kept himself in great shape post boxing career so that won't be an issue at all and he should still have superior conditioning to his opponent in Paul. This fight is just eight, three-minute rounds which is light work for Mayweather who regularly boxed 30 minute sparring sessions including sessions with 5 to 8 minute rounds with different sparring partners moving in.
Both fighters will be wearing 10-ounce gloves as opposed to the 12-ounce gloves that they were going to wear initially so that should increase the chance for a stoppage. The biggest thing unsophisticated fight fans and those unfamiliar with the sport of boxing are talking about in regards to this fight is Paul's size advantage as he's 6-foot-2 with a six-inch height advantage, holding a four-inch reach advantage with a 7- inch reach.
Paul will also have a massive weight advantage, outweighing Mayweather on the night of the fight by close to 30 pounds but he will be fined $100,000 for every pound he weighs in over the 190-pound weight limit. Given the size advantage, Paul's trainer has likely tried to have him work on is jab to control distance but given the discrepancy in skill, it likely won't matter.
Its likely we see Mayweather put on a show for the audience to keep it entertaining, carrying Paul as he did McGregor by simply walking him down with the high guard, knowing Paul can't hurt him. In an interview with Complex Magazine, Mayweather said, "We want to give the people entertainment. If I wanted to, I could go out there and if I want to I could knock him out in the first-round. If that’s what I want to do, I could make it rough. What I want to do is have fun and I don’t want to knock him out right away. You know why? I really want to see his skills. I want to show him that there’s a difference between the elite level, real elite boxing, and YouTube boxing. We’ll see. The movement is totally different."
Mayweather is expected to come in at 160 pounds and hasn't come in for any fight over 154 so he will be the smaller fighter come fight night. This isn't unusual however as we've seen Mayweather overcome massive height and weight advantages throughout his career.
Tony Pep was the tallest fighter Mayweather has faced at 6-foot-1 and a half and he made easy work of him, out working him by landing 250 of 490 punches (51%). One of Mayweather's signature wins at featherweight was his win over Diego Corrales, who was the No. 1 ranked super featherweight in the world and fifth on Ring Magazine's pound-for-pound list, ranked ahead of Mayweather in both.
Corrales had numerous size advantages, two inches in height and inch in reach and was tall, explosive and powerful. Mayweather made easy work of him, winning every round and knocking him down five times, including three times in round 7 and twice in round 10. With Mayweather moving up in weight to fight bigger fighters in Canelo Alvarez and Oscar De La Hoya as well as his time in the gym in which he fights bigger sparring partners, Paul's height and weight advantage won't be an advantage at all given his lack of skill.
Mayweather vs. Paul Pick
The 1996 comedy movie, the "Great White Hype" starring Samuel L Jackson, perfectly describes the Floyd Mayweather vs Conor McGregor fight as well as this weekend's fight against Paul. A boxing promoter creates a "white" contender to drum up interest for a prize fight with the best boxer in the sport and everyone buys into it despite him not having a worthy resume.
This isn't the betting opportunity that the 2017 Mayweather vs McGregor fight was. That was a sanctioned boxing match in which the public overwhelming bet on McGregor, pushing the line from -2000 to -400 on Mayweather. You could even get almost even money on Mayweather winning by knockout against an MMA fighter who never before stepped into the boxing ring. It was the greatest betting opportunity of our lifetime if you bet Mayweather in that fight and I'm not sure if we'll see another one. That said, oddsmakers are essentially giving out free money on this fight.
This is true free roll betting on Mayweather, as there's no official winner unless there's a knockout. We know Logan Paul isn't knocking out Mayweather and it's highly likely Mayweather will stop Paul, especially with both fighters wearing 10-ounce gloves as opposed to 12. Mayweather will want to knockout Paul in order to bring some excitement for a possible match against Logan's brother, Jake Paul to bring in event more money so it's highly likely Mayweather stops him.
In the case that Mayweather doesn't stop Paul, all bets are ruled no contest and you get your money back.
Lay the -700 on Mayweather, it's as free money as it gets.
The Pick: Floyd Mayweather ML (-700)
