Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal Odds, Pick & Prediction: A Bet for MMA’s Boxing Main Event (Saturday, July 6)

Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal Odds

Here's everything you need to know about the Nate Diaz vs Jorge Masvidal odds for Saturday, July 6.

This is a boxing match.

This is not going to be in the UFC octagon.

And as a result, this might make Jorge Masvidal's pending boxing match with Nate Diaz much more interesting.

Masvidal (1-0, 0 KOs) hasn't boxed professionally since 2005 but has been behind his Gamebred Promotions, which is promoting this card and promoted another last year.

Diaz (0-1) boxed professionally only once and took Jake Paul all 10 rounds in a loss. He was knocked down, but Diaz showed valiant resiliency as always and had his moments, though he was clearly overpowered by the bigger Paul.

Masvidal and Diaz are running back their late 2019 Madison Square Garden-held "BMF" title bout, in which Masvidal won by doctor's stoppage after three rounds.

Given the lack of experience and data for these two in boxing, it'll be a tough one to handicap, but we'll do our best.

Here's my Diaz vs. Masvidal pick and prediction for Saturday.

Diaz vs. Masvidal Breakdown & Analysis

This fight was originally supposed to take place on June 1 after originally being scheduled in March, but now it's here on Independence Day weekend.

Masvidal, for some reason, is a -270 favorite. His only win in boxing came against little-known journeyman Joseph Benjamin, who was 1-11-2, and that was a majority-decision win.

We know Masvidal grew up street fighting, but we don't actually know where his boxing is in 2024. Diaz, we've at least seen in competition a year ago, though no one would call him Terence Crawford either.

The fight will be contested at light heavyweight – a 175-pound limit. Masvidal is 5-foot-11 with a 74-inch reach and is going to turn 40 in November.

Diaz is 6-feet tall with a 76-inch reach and primarily fights out of the southpaw stance, and he just turned 39 in April.

Diaz's biggest strength is his endurance, which he showed in the Paul bout – a 10-round fight like Saturday's one is scheduled to be. For Masvidal, he'll likely try to pound Diaz on the inside and take away his reach advantage. Diaz will likely try to utilize the two inches, but he also seemed content with banging on the inside even with Paul.

Diaz vs. Masvidal Prediction & Pick

I don't have a great feel on the winner here. I don't.

But I do think given their general toughness and durability, we should see this go the full 10 rounds, which is -186 on FanDuel.

Diaz is a guy you'll have to kill to beat, and I don't think Masvidal is necessarily going to do it. We could say the same in reverse. I expect Masvidal to have a more tactical approach, but I do wonder if Diaz will maintain his stamina more effectively as the fight progresses.

To win, I like the upside of Diaz as a dog, but that's more of a sprinkle than anything else. I'm just not sure why Masvidal is a near 3-1 favorite, though I'd acknowledge he can win. But I'll take the fight to go the distance.

Enjoy the fight and don't go broke.

The Pick: Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal Goes to Decision (-186 at FanDuel)

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