Update: The Father won Best Adapted Screenplay.
Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees & Odds
| Nominee | Odds | Implied Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Nomadland | -400 | 80% |
| The Father | +275 | 26.7% |
| Borat Subsequent Moviefilm | +800 | 11.1% |
| One Night in Miami | +1400 | 6.7% |
| The White Tiger | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Odds as of April 24 and via DraftKings. | ||
Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions
Nomadland -400
Collin Wilson: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm may have been popularized for Rudy Giuliani tucking his shirt, but the flick took home the hardware for this category at the Writers Guild. The film beat The White Tiger and One Night in Miami, which are also listed in this category. Winning an Academy Award will be a bit tougher with The Father and Nomadland in the mix, both of which were ineligible at the Writers Guild Awards.
There are no historical trends to lean on with this category, other than there has been a massive increase in non-fiction films being nominated and subsequently winning.
Although fiction adaptations was the norm for decades, the winning percentage is still very even.
Recent winners of this category are telling stories that are more and more an echo of our current political and system climate. Past winners include JoJo Rabbit, BlacKkKlansman and Moonlight are recent winners that had a social reflection worthy of any audience member. The White Tiger and Nomadland each tackle the subject of the distancing of economic wealth. As a hot topic in present news, these are the two screenplays worth shedding money on.
Take the big number on Nomadland, but back it up with The White Tiger.
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm +800
Collin Whitchurch: Given the Academy's love for Nomadland up and down the card, it's understandable that it's the favorite here. The next two favorites are the winners at the BAFTAs and WGA, respectively, and while the latter organization has the uncertainty over its nomination process, it's still been successful in predicting 14 of the last 20 Best Adapted Screenplay winners.
That makes Borat's long odds surprising. It seems unfathomably that the Academy would give a statuette to a mockumentary sequel where a man (who has a very serious role in The Trial of the Chicago 7, I might remind you!) does the same bad Eastern European accent while embarrassing the hell out of ignorant Americans, but it gave this award to a movie about a young Nazi who talked to a fake Hitler a year ago, so giant shrug emoji.
Borat at +800 will be my biggest longshot flier of the night. It's a longshot for a reason so don't get crazy, but bet it to +600.
