Crystal Palace vs Brentford Odds
| Crystal Palace Odds | +125 |
| Brentford Odds | +220 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 +115 / -150 |
Crystal Palace host Brentford for a London Derby between two bottom half of the table sides.
Palace conceded a late penalty against Chelsea on Wednesday to lose 2-1. The loss pulled Crystal Palace into the relegation battle, as they are now only three points from safety. The Eagles' attack is starting to get healthier, which has meant that Roy Hodgson has been willing to play more attacking football, which could end up being a benefit to them in the long run.
Brentford are going through a horrible run of form right now, losing six of their last seven matches to fall even deeper in the bottom half of the table. The Bees' underlying numbers during this run have been positive, so they will have some positive regression coming their way and they have a pretty good matchup against Crystal Palace here even if they are on the road.
Crystal Palace
Things are starting to trend in the right direction for Crystal Palace offensively. Both Eberchi Eze and Michael Olise are now both healthy, which has led to Roy Hodsgon playing a different style than we typically see from his teams.
The last few matches, most notably the one against Chelsea, Crystal Palace have been playing more open and trying to build out of the back. In part it has to do with both Olise and Eze bring healthy, so it makes sense to try and get the best qualities out of both of them by getting ball their feet rather than just trying to send long balls up to them. Their willingness to play more open has shown up in the data too because in eight of their last nine matches there has been at least 2.5 expected goals created and for the season their matches are averaging 2.62 expected goals. Even against Chelsea on Wednesday there were 3.5 expected goals created from open play.
The problem with Crystal Palace being a build out of the back type of team is their personnel at the back is not well suited to play through pressure. Crystal Palace are 18th in offensive PPDA and 16th in build up completion percentage, while Brentford can and will press high in this match having the fifth best PPDA.
The Crystal Palace defense has been good for a large part of the season because they were most playing in a compact low block. Now that they've started to play more open these past two matches, their defense has suffered, as they are allowing 8.4 expected goals over their last five matches.
Brentford
Brentford had three goals put past them against Wolves on some uncharacteristic mistakes in build up. When Brentford play teams like Crystal Palace they will set up in a 4-3-3 and try to be more attack-minded while building out of the back. Generally, Brentford are a good build up team, but it’s pretty clear they are really missing Aaron Hickey and Rico Henry at the fullback positions. Playing a team like Crystal Palace who has a winger of the caliber of Michael Olise is not the best of scenarios for Bees.
Outside of three careless mistakes, Brentford were actually pretty effective out of possession against Wolves. What makes them so difficult to play against is they first are really good falling back into their 5-3-2 defensive block and not allowing teams to play thorough centrally or get into their penalty box. When they also feel they can disrupt and opponents build up play they will come out and press high. They did that when they fell behind against Wolves and were really successful. Not to mention they have the third-best build up completion percentage allowed in the Premier League.
They will have a couple of key advantages offensively too. When Brentford are in possession they are always looking to get the ball out wide to swing in crosses to create chances. They have completed the most crosses of anyone in the Premier League into the penalty area, while Crystal Palace have allowed the fourth-most.
Brentford also put a big value on set pieces and over the past three seasons have consistently been in the top five in xG per set piece, while Crystal Palace have been in the bottom half of the Premier League at defending set pieces for three years now.
Crystal Palace vs Brentford
Prediction
Even though Brentford are going through a bad run right now, their underlying data is still very positive. The Bees have lost six of their last seven matches, but have a +1.5 npxGD during that time frame. They've been incredibly unlucky in front of net during this span, scoring just six goals off of 11.6 expected goals.
Brentford are way overdue for some positive regression offensively and given how open Crystal Palace have been playing recently, the Bees will be able to create a lot of high quality chances.
For Crystal Palace, they now have dynamic attackers in Eze and Olise that can rip apart any defense. Olise playing out wide without the fear of having to face Hickey or Henry is going to wreak havoc on the Brentford defense.
The natural feel of this match screams low event, but given how these two teams play when they are not playing one of the top tier sides, it's going to be a little more open than you would expect.
I have 2.53 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the over at +116.
Pick: Over 2.5 (+116 via PointsBet)
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