The Houston Cougars are among the favorites to win March Madness this season on account of their world class defense, but somehow, one aspect of the market undervalues them.
Houston boasts the No. 2 adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) and No. 17 adjusted offensive efficiency (AdjO), enough for historical metrics to love this team.
Since 2004, every team that has won the national championship has entered the tournament with Houston's benchmark of advanced stats. This season, seven teams join Houston on the matter: UConn, Auburn, Iowa State, Tennessee, Arizona, North Carolina and Marquette.
For the mispriced market, though, we'll head to the Cougars' odds of making the Final Four.
My colleague and head of our data analytics department Sean Koerner has developed a model that maps out every single projected matchup and the odds related to such. Koerner has also laid out the entire futures markets and has determined whether there's value.
And there's value on Houston to get out of their region and make the Final Four. While Koerner projects odds of +112 to do so, the best market price at DraftKings as of Tuesday afternoon lists Houston at +140.
That's roughly 5.5% EV. In other words, if you consistently make this type of bet, you're expected to make a profit of about 5.5 cents for every dollar wagered over the long run.
Identifying EV is difficult — but not if you have an algorithm from one of the foremost handicappers in sports right now.
If you decide to utilize this as a datapoint to better optimize your betting strategy or bracket, make sure to hit the market-best price. For instance, some sportsbooks has this listed at +130 or even +125. A bet at +125 loses a whopping 3% in +EV the second you hit submit.
