When it comes to the majors, we haven't had a longshot winner since 2016 when Jimmy Walker took down the PGA Championship.
It's getting harder for the unknowns to come through with the upper echelon as deep as it's ever been: Rory and DJ and Brooks and Spieth and Thomas and Fowler and Rahm are just the top of what seems like a never-ending list of stars.
And now that we're throwing Tiger back into the mix, and it's just looks like an impossible task for someone to come completely out of nowhere and win.
Just looking back at the Masters, Webb Simpson was the only player to tee off at 100-1 or higher who even managed to place inside the top 10.
Because of this, I've just loaded up on the top and middle of the card, and am focusing on a different kind of prop for my longshot bet.
The guy I like most in this range is Matt Wallace, who is 125-1 to win, but I'll be playing him to finish in the top 10 at +1000.
Wallace nearly won last week at the British Masters, but had a putt inside four feet lip out on the 71st hole.
He's been playing great overseas for a couple years now, and while we're still waiting for him to really contend on the PGA Tour, he's been able to put together a few good results.
He had a run of five straight made cuts, highlighted by a sixth-place finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Wallace is a guy who is going to pop up on a leaderboard at a major soon. He's relatively long off the tee, which should suit Bethpage, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if his major breakout came this week.
The Full PGA Championship Betting Card
- Justin Rose +2100 (1.57 units)
- Xander Schauffele +3300 (1 unit)
- Tony Finau +4500 (.73 units)
- Hideki Matsuyama +5000 (.66 units)
- Adam Scott +6500 (.51 units)
- Bubba Watson +6600 (.5 units)
- Sergio Garcia +6600 (.5 units)
- Matt Wallace Top 10 +1000 (.5 units)
Total Stake: 5.97 units
Season: -17.61 units
