It was a tough loss last week in our lone pick for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, bringing our total to 4-6 on the season.
Pat Perez was behind the 8-ball and failed to recover from a terrible start leading to a missed cut. Adding to the frustration, Branden Grace performed terribly on the weekend, as expected, finishing 49th.
This week we look to bounce back at an event with a ton of course history to draw from.
For those new to the article, welcome! Every week, I use Strokes Gained data, course history and a multitude of other data points to handicap the matchups offered by both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Using a computer simulation tool I built from scratch, I simulate each available matchup 10,000 times to determine each golfer’s probability of winning. Using that winning percentage, I am able to set my own line for every matchup, and compare it against what the books are offering.
The goal is to find value in the current betting lines and give ourselves a small edge over and over to churn out profit throughout the course of the year. I picked matchups at a 61% clip for the 2020-21 PGA TOUR season and hope to continue that momentum this season.
Below, I have outlined a couple matchups that showed the most value in my simulations this week for the Genesis Invitational. For each matchup, I provide the current line, what my simulations set the line at and why I believe it is a profitable bet.
Let’s get to it!
Sam Burns (+100) over Matthew Fitzpatrick (DraftKings)
My line: -125
Both Burns and Fitzpatrick have good showings in their limited history at this event, including top-five finishes last year.
However, over the last 24 rounds Burns leads Fitzpatrick in every statistical ball-striking category.
Burns, who ranks 35th in driving distance this season, should have the advantage off the tee as Fitzpatrick ranks just 194th. The added length should help tackle this setup, which includes two par-5s that measure close to 600 yards and a drivable 335-yard par 4.
Luke List (-130) over Alex Noren (DraftKings)
My line: -152
List has been on an absolute tear tee-to-green of late, gaining 36.7 strokes over his last five events.
But the main obstacle with List is always his putter, averaging over 1.2 strokes lost per event on the putting surfaces. However, this week we are on Poa Annua greens where he is more comfortable, and averages -0.09 strokes per event.
While Noren finished 6th last week on the back of a scorching putter (gained 7.4 strokes putting), his putting should regress this week. This is the only surface where he loses strokes putting on average.
We downgrade Noren’s best weapon, and neutralize List’s Achilles heel, which gives List the advantage in this matchup.
