Another week of split-course rotational golf takes us to Torrey Pines for the 2024 Farmers Insurance Open.
Players are going to rotate between the North and South courses on Wednesday and Thursday before the golfers who make the cut go back to the much lengthier South setup for the final two rounds. Find my 2024 Farmers Insurance Open Data Driven Picks below.
It is important to remember that we are talking about a nearly 7,700-yard South course that will play even longer than that distance because of the downpour of rain in San Diego to begin the week. Thick four-inch rough should add to the difficulty and increase the need to produce distance off the tee.
However, I can't help but continue to go back to the narrative that despite the North only holding 25% of the rounds and measuring nearly 400 yards shorter, we get the most impactful 18 holes played there in deciding the winner.
Most iterations of this contest have been won between 13 and 15-under par. The last five winners of this tournament have shot between four to nine-under par during their one-off chance at the more straightforward North property, which highlights how important it is to capitalize on the North Course where lower scoring is possible.
Let's see if we can pinpoint who some of those golfers may be this week and talk about where the money has entered the market.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Data Driven Picks
Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better if you had shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.
Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and shows potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I talked about on Links + Locks.
*** Please note that we only have 24 hours of data because of the early start to this contest.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Biggest Market Movers
My model was late to pull market moves early on Monday. When looking at a golfer like Sahith Theegala and his decline from the 40s into the 30s, much of the movement had already occurred by the time my model was done trying to pull nonexistent data from last week's American Express.
It doesn't mean all those moves were "sharp," but notable totals were hammered within minutes of the market opening on Monday, including Min Woo Lee, who joined Theegala as one of the immediate names to lose a few points early in the week.
I talked on Links + Locks about how Nicolai Hojgaard was an intriguing name to consider at 55/1. That number has since dropped to 50/1 after recording. I will be interested to see how he fares on the South Course on Wednesday. The potential to bet him live in round one is always there if he starts hot, and I wouldn't discredit his odds Wednesday night before he takes on the much easier North property.
I don't have an issue with Min Woo Lee. He is a highly talented golfer with elite returns for par-5 scoring, scrambling and distance. I do worry marginally that his iron play could hurt him if Torrey Pines plays soft from all the rain, but the price is fair in that high 20s/low 30s.
While Harris English isn't my cup of tea, his recent form far outweighs his course history over the past five years at the track. English ranked 19th in my model for projected strokes gained at a long course, 17th for scrambling and was one of the significant climbers for me when diving into scoring production at the North versus the South.
Someone will post an extremely low total over the opening days at the North and try to hold on during the other 75% of their rounds. Perhaps a hot putter like English possesses that potential for success.
2024 Farmers Insurance Open Data Driven Outright Picks
This has nothing to do with the recent onslaught of longshot winners, but I did decide to create an incredibly diverse and deep card of golfers from way down the board.
My biggest concern would be Tony Finau wins after backing him for the past few months (and every year here since 2017). The course fit is ideal for the American to break through one of these years. That said, here is who I did wager money on for this week's Farmers Insurance Open.
Sahith Theegala 35/1
During the fall, I noted that Theegala's boost for Weighted Proximity at the Fortinet gave him an 87-spot improvement. While we don't have quite as large of an amount here, the 56-spot disparity could be good enough for him to add to that Fortinet title from September. His back-to-back top-25 finishes at the Farmers should highlight a golfer who can flare the ball off the tee and not get as punished as at other stops.
Ludvig Aberg 25/1
When I asked Roberto Arguello about his thoughts on Ludvig Aberg during Links and Locks, it was all I needed to push myself onto the youngster at 25/1.
The upside numbers in my model loved his potential fit for Torrey Pines. While the first-time narrative could hurt him a little since we don't have data on Aberg when taking on similar green complexes, the long rough and wet conditions may neutralize some of those concerns. I will take the best driver of the golf ball who has very few weaknesses at this inflated price.
Robert McIntyre 350/1
It is a boom-or-bust profile for MacIntyre, although I will use last week's missed cut to our advantage and shoot for the moon regarding his upside.
MacIntyre's par-5 scoring, long iron play and scrambling acumen should play well this week, and all of that provided a profile for a golfer who landed in the top 20 for projected scoring at the North Course. That last part makes him a better bet in the placement market as a top-10 bet at 20/1 (another wager I have this week), but there wasn't a golfer for me this week who had as high of a ceiling and as low of a floor.
Taylor Pendrith 125/1
Pendrith has excelled lately with four top-15 finishes in his last six starts. His Weighted Proximity increased over his baseline projection, and his Weighted Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green return did the same, providing the fifth-most significant shift inside my model.
For transparency, Will Zalatoris, MacIntyre, Sam Ryder and Davis Thompson were the four largest movers in that area. I will grab his boosted price here at a better-suited course for his game.
Jhonattan Vegas 400/1
Vegas is just starting to show signs of recovery from a poor 2023 that was plagued by injury.
At his best, this was a golfer who generated six top-40 finishes at Torrey Pines in nine attempts from 2015 to 2023. I am going to bet on that long-term profile and hope the ball-striking shows up again at a venue he has loved historically. If he performs, I will also have a top-20 ticket on him at +900 at BetRivers.
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Akshay Bhatia 90/1
Akshay Bhatia experienced massive shifts in a positive direction when faced with a fast Poa surface over his baseline putting data. The ball-striking is always elite, so if the putter can be better than anticipated, the ceiling raises for his potential. I thought 90/1 was high enough to take it early and not wait for Wednesday night since he starts with that South/North split I mentioned earlier for Hojgaard.
Top-Two Projected Win Equity Choices In My Model
Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)
