For a betting card that didn't have much exposure risk when things started on Thursday, it has quickly turned into a final round to pay close attention to for us this week.
Patrick Cantlay will look to follow in the footsteps of our Wyndham Clark 100/1 ticket at Pebble Beach after sticking at the top of the leaderboard for two consecutive days. His one-under 70 did allow Xander Schauffele and Will Zalatoris to close his lead to within two shots after a performance that saw him lose 0.78 shots to the field, but there are a lot of reasons to be both bullish and bearish on his chances in round four.
I am going to talk about some of that logic below for those who may have a Cantlay ticket in hand. There are sites that allow a Cantlay versus field bet if you are looking to play things safer. However, here is where we currently stand at this moment from all wagers at the Genesis Invitational.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 Genesis Invitational
There are typically two items within my model that I trust heading into the final round when we have someone in contention.
The first would be finding a golfer who hasn't overachieved his actual ball-striking output by more than five spots on the leaderboard on any given day. That category is essential because it shows the players striking the ball the best for the week.
Sometimes, an ascension up the leaderboard is very putter-heavy. It doesn't mean making putts will hurt your grade for me in that sector, but not hitting your driver or irons well will typically catch up to you in pressure situations when push comes to shove.
My model found six players to land under that criteria when including top-30 ball-striking returns for the week. Names like Tony Finau and Ludvig Åberg did it the hard way by losing 2.93 and 3.76 shots with their putter, respectively, but here is the entire list.
The most intriguing part of that return is that it includes Cantlay and Zalatoris, two of the three favorites entering the final round. Cantlay has done it more legitimately than Zalatoris since it is a steadier output off-the-tee and approach. That said, you will never negatively affect a player who is leading the field with his irons for the week.
The second area I like to point toward is taking that ball-striking total and adding in my model's two-year running baseline projection for a player with their putter and around-the-green game to deliver a new anticipated score for the event.
Cantlay's 7.48 strokes he has gained putting might look to be a potential massive red flag since he is 6.73 shots above his expected number through three rounds, but that is one of the reasons I run things compared to their actual score and also include in the around-the-green metrics.
When I did that, the true leaderboard inside of my model turned into the following names.
Don't even get me started on Rory McIlroy and his disappointing back-to-back tournaments. Still, the fact that Cantlay led my model and landed nearly two shots better than both second-place options of Schauffele and Zalatoris should show that his two-shot lead has been earned, even if he lands first in strokes gained putting.
Cantlay hasn't always been perfect in final rounds, but it's a pressure-free pairing with his buddy Schauffele, one where I will be staying fully invested as we head into Sunday.
I'd generally tip my cap to Cantlay for good luck, but we all know by now that the best version of the American comes when he is ruthless and hatless. Let's see some of that Ryder Cup fire and close this show for outright win number two of 2024.
