2024 John Deere Classic Data-Driven Picks: Outrights & FRL Bets

TPC Deere Run was built in 1999 by D.A. Weibring on a former Arabian horse farm. Weibring used the natural rolling landscape of the land to create a golf course that stretches alongside the picturesque wooded ravines of the area's famous Rock River in the Quad Cities area.

TPC courses on the PGA Tour are consistent in their builds. These layouts mimic something along the lines of beautiful, made-for-television architecture that frequently accentuate birdie-fest scoring conditions.

I wanted to be unique in the way I built my model this week past the common layout answers that are easy to extrapolate. One way I did that was by adding in the Weighted Proximity returns for this course to the Expected Make Percentages on putts that we have on record throughout the event's history.

Deviating a little in that area while then adding in the common viewpoints like historical TPC Scoring, Easy Scoring at its most basic level or similar architecture trends of where this track mimics other venues was a rather simplistic way for me to get unique but do so in a fashion that didn't yield quite the exact blueprint as everyone else looking at the data.

If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

2024 John Deere Classic Data-Driven Picks

Every Monday, I take an aggregated total from a handful of books I respect and form a median outright price. None of that suggests you wouldn't be able to find better prices if you shopped around, but that is a total I use to compare against a golfer's outright odds movements.

Those returns indicate where the square versus sharp money has entered the market and show potential DFS value for those looking to round out their player pool. Let's dive into some of the shifts in the market and see how they line up with the outright bets I discussed on the Links + Locks 2024 John Deere Classic Betting Preview podcast.

2024 John Deere Biggest Market Movers

We do this every week when trying to find sharp versus square movement. More often than not, the activity from the public ends up in a direction that falters for all bettors placing wagers on those golfers to win the event.

My answer here doesn't derive thoughts from within my model. I would have a stronger or weaker stance for some of these players than others, but this list features a highly eclectic group of players whom I mostly deem to be better cash-game plays than outright targets.

I did find some interest in Patton Kizzire, Luke Clanton, Adam Svensson, Lucas Glover and Lee Hodges before these price shifts early in the week.

It becomes less advantageous when you start chasing a movement and have missed out on the early value, but you can tune into Links + Locks this week to hear Roberto Arguello's take on why Ben Kohles was one of the best values on the board when things opened on Monday.

2024 John Deere Classic Worst Current Values

One of my favorite head-to-head bets this week ended up being Dylan Wu -123 over S.H. Kim.

My model found the entire group listed above to be overvalued for one reason or another, but the matchup against Wu was the only opportunity inside my model to back a top-30 player against one of these candidates.

Kim ranked a troubling 137th for Weighted Proximity when geared toward TPC Deere Run and doubled down on that profile when ranking 100th for Projected Total Driving.

The putter has been carrying him and provides a return that sees an upside at more accessible courses, but as I mentioned on Links + Locks, putting is only one small part of this equation. Golfers still need to create opportunities with the rest of their game, which is something I worry about for almost all of these players.

2024 John Deere Classic Data-Driven Outrights

If we are going with only what we have seen over the past 2.5 months, my model had a hard time not grading Aaron Rai as the best player in this field.

Six consecutive top-40 finishes dating back to the Byron Nelson will tell part of that story, and that is before we even get to his tournament-leading five of six categories inside the top 10 of my model this week when sampling the data over a two-year running perspective.

While I realize that my proper projected outright price of 15.5-1 is wildly aggressive for a player who hasn't won on the PGA Tour, his victory at the 2020 Scottish Open should provide some optimism that he has the potential to close the door when needed. I know he hasn't always done that in America (including last week), but it is hard to ignore the recent surging form at a weaker event.

(Best in the space is now 35-1 at FanDuel)

I have to provide content early in the week and grab numbers for articles I feel comfortable recommending, but I am not surprised that this price has increased over the last 48 hours.

I recommended waiting for this number to move up a few points on Monday. There are a handful of ways to highlight where things may move, but it is typically easy to see where money is entering the market by tracking a handful of books. I never see a point in being the first to enter a market when you can clearly see the space is moving in a different direction.

Poston has a broader ceiling-versus-floor projection than anyone in this price range. However, his first-place rank for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total when gearing the data for TPC Deere Run was much more impactful in terms of upside than any floor outcome since we are looking for win potential when placing these outright bets.

It is my belief that certain players have been hurt this season because of the limited-field signature events. It is obviously amazing to get into the high-end fields, but Poston is one of the prime examples of a golfer who has faced courses that were frankly too long for his game. I have been a buyer whenever we get back to a natural spot for him on these shorter golf courses.

(Best price is now 75-1 at PointsBet)

Unlike the Poston discussion a second ago, this movement is a little shocking to me since the four books I most heavily use to track movement have all dropped Hisatsune's price down a handful of points from where it opened.

My model shows Hisatsune averaging +2.74 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over his last five tournaments, including back-to-back starts in which he has bettered that total to +5.25 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. I understand those two finishes didn't yield better than a 31st-place finish because of poor putting, a prevalent problem again in Illinois, but it is not as if Hisatsune doesn't occasionally pop with his putter to provide a greater ceiling.

Some putters are always neutral or worse. Others lose considerably or gain heavily. Hisatsune fits that mold of option two, by gaining over four shots in two of his past six starts while losing over 2.5 in an additional five of 12 tournaments.

Given Hisatsune's profile and the odds now being 75-1, this is the best value on the board for one of the better ball-strikers in this event.

(Best in the space is now 70-1 at PointsBet)

Outside of J.T. Poston, there is a very consistent trend in my model for the John Deere Classic of mostly poor putters who can spike with that portion of their game.

Much of that goes back to my course breakdown and how I re-projected weighted proximity returns for this course and compared it to the make percentage totals on putts we have on record throughout the event's history.

Essentially, my model was trying to determine how many expected birdies each player would make when you took opportunities and added it to their make rate. Berger had more concerns than the rest of the group because he stalled out in multiple areas, but his rise from 114th in Birdie or Better Percentage at a random course to third when faced with Easy-Scoring conditions caught my eye.

None of that is still perfect because his Expected Birdie Rate at TPC Deere Run barely cracked the top 25 of the field, but his recent combination of iron play and driving is starting to mimic vintage Berger.

Let's not get overly technical for arguably the best player in this field when he was healthy a few years back.

(Best price is now 70-1 at Caesars)

Do I worry a little that my model is always higher than the market on Doug Ghim? Maybe since there has been a lack of weekly upside during most of those situations.

However, it was hard to overlook his third-place rank when combining Easy Scoring Courses, Putting From 5-10 Feet and GIR Percentage.

There is enough putting being projected in my model this week that his high-end output carried a little more weight in my mind than usual since he did his typical showing of tanking in that category.

My Model's Top Projected Win Equity Choices

1. Aaron Rai
2. Sepp Straka
3. J.T. Poston
4. Davis Thompson
5. Keith Mitchell

Those returns took away some of the betting favorites in Sungjae Im and Jordan Spieth. I don't necessarily have a massive issue with either for DFS purposes, but I had a hard time getting to either in the outright market because of their lack of value.

Best Values To Consider At New Price (Not In Order Of Perceived Edge)

I mentioned this above, but the average pull for me had Hisatsune at 60-1. That 75-1 price in the market would technically be the best value on the board.

John Deere Classic First-Round Leader Bets