Scottie Scheffler is in the lead … stop me if you've heard this story before.
I have reached the point where I feel that outright markets involving Scheffler are mostly untouchable because of the skewed price that pushes him into a territory that isn't worth a bet prior to the event, but also doesn't give us any notable drift to discuss the names directly above him on the board.
With that thought in mind, we'll ignore that market Sunday and instead bet a head-to-head wager that my model really liked.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2024 RBC Heritage
Russell Henley (-120) Over Tom Kim (Bet365)
I decided to put a rather hefty wager — 1.4 units to win 1.17 — on this Russell Henley over Tom Kim matchup.
My model has aggressively suggested that Kim should be faded this entire week because of his out-of-nowhere stellar round on Sunday at the Masters, which moved him up to 30th place after he mostly struggled for three days.
I get that Kim's profile is that of a young stalwart who should be thriving, but his recent metrics have been highly questionable from both a statistical and actual leaderboard output standpoint.
We have yet to receive a top-15 finish from him in 10 events. Additionally, he's losing, on average, 4.26 shots to the field with his tee-to-green numbers. The market has corrected itself since that Sunday performance at the Masters blends into his current 17th-place mark on the leaderboard. However, very little has changed this week when you ignore this outlier putting performance that places him first in this field with his flat stick.
Kim's tee-to-green statistics are once again pronounced after losing 2.76 strokes to the field with that portion of his game through three rounds, placing him 53rd out of 69 players in this field.
One of my favorite wagers is when we can get these five-shot discrepancies in projected "Baseline Putting + Around-The-Green" totals in my model. There is a reason markets would have had this wager 50+ points higher than this on Wednesday afternoon, and I don't understand the sudden decline that has given us a 40-point edge.
Win or lose, I guarantee this line will move in our favor before a ball is struck Sunday.
