Let's get straight into it: Here are the matchups I'm targeting for the 2024 Tour Championship.
2024 Tour Championship Predictions
Tony Finau -110 over Adam Scott (bet365)
I talked on "Links + Locks" yesterday about how this wasn't an event where I wanted to get an overabundance of exposure because of the unknown variables. Because of those concerns, I entered that show with zero matchups I had wagered on for the week.
However, the more I have continued diving into the board and how I think the course will play out after the reconstruction, the more I have taken on this approach (no pun intended) that long iron proximity from 200+ yards will play a critical factor in deciding the outcome of the Tour Championship.
We talk a lot in articles and podcasts about overcorrection to the market. This can occur both negatively and positively when the industry shifts a matchup, placement, or outright total too far because of a performance or two. I've relayed this sentiment numerous times, but the one problem with short-term data is that it weighs heavily into the pricing that shops release to begin the event. That doesn't necessarily mean that the movement is always wrong. Rather, it suggests that sportsbooks have accepted and established that recent form into their totals and presented an altered price from where it may have been a few weeks ago.
All of that is even fine in a vacuum situation, but the thing with golf is that course layouts and things of that nature will always be the blueprint for how I am building my model at its core. I will look into the current form and run some short-term data to understand better how sustainable the form will be for that given track. Still, you can sometimes start to realize that the "trending" data hasn't even been properly distributed for the skillset requirement that will be asked of players for this new tournament.
We see that front and center when looking at Scott's recent profile, where four top-18 finishes, including three top-10 showings, have catapulted the former UNLV product up any head-to-head ranking list. I've also seen that factor happen in my model after watching Scott be listed as a slight favorite over Tony Finau for last week's BMW Championship, but the concern goes back to how his game fits a long iron test like we will get at East Lake.
My model ranked Scott 29th out of 30 players in Expected Proximity over a two-year running perspective. Even when I shortened the data to fit just the past few months, it could only push him to 19th in this field.
It does feel as if we are getting the high end of Scott's expected production because of his form, which only adds to my intrigue since we are getting the low end of Finau's output at East Lake in the past to deliver a price here that I thought was off by about 15 points.
Shane Lowry -110 over Sahith Theegala (bet365)
If you are tuning in from "Links + Locks" to see if I added this wager, the answer is yes.
I have my concerns about Lowry's ability to putt on Bermuda surfaces. You don't just go from 30th in Expected Putting to gaining 5+ strokes in an event (I don't think). However, there is this two-pronged outlook here that is noteworthy when we try to find value on a very condensed board.
The first part of the equation here is how well Lowry is striking the ball entering the event. The Irishman has gained strokes off the tee in 12 of 13 starts and with his irons in 22 of 25. While the putting has struggled at times, especially on a Bermuda surface, Lowry has seen some spike performances throughout the year when diving into just Donald Ross venues.
That part of the equation as a standalone answer would probably still place me in this position of the wager being a stay-away because of the volatile output he delivers inside of my sheet, it goes back to what Roberto Arguello talked about on Tuesday during "Links + Locks" of Theegala perhaps being an injured golfer that is spiraling with his short-game because of the wrist concerns.
Outside of pulling out of the Wednesday Pro-Am at the BMW Championship, we haven't heard a ton about the wrist. The fact that we have a storied past with that injury being an issue does worry me that the American is trying to tough through a potential aggravation because of all the money that is on the line throughout the FedExCup Playoff stretch.
My numbers didn't love Theegala without that injury answer coming into play (bottom-five golfer in my model), so if the injury answer does come into play here this week, it does start to present us with a situation where the 26-year-old is competing just to make it through four days.
