FedEx St. Jude Championship Round 4 Prediction
As I've said in the past on Links + Locks, the interesting thing about sports betting is that you don't need to be perfect in every market to turn a profit. This week, one of the most atrocious betting cards you will ever see from me, could turk out okay because it includes pre-tournament outrights on Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland.
Matsuyama brings a five-shot lead into the final day. Funny enough, that's a stroke less than what he overcame at the Genesis Invitational to taking out my pre-tournament choice of Patrick Cantlay. I would prefer not to land on the best and worst highlight reels of Matsuyama this season, but I do feel as bullish as possible for an event that sees Scottie Scheffler fourth on the leaderboard.
Some will say Matsuyama won't get across the finish line because of the tournament-leading 6.92 strokes he's gained with his putter through three rounds. I understand worrying about regression for a player who was projected to drop 0.20 shots per day, but that's why I always recalculate the leaderboard to see where the field resides when combining actual ball-striking to anticipated short-game statistics.
Here is a recalibrated projection of where all players sit through 54 holes:
I understand we aren't looking at the same five-shot advantage when running the data in that capacity, but the two most significant takeaways I want everyone to consider from that leaderboard are the following:
1) Matsuyama's closest pursuer, Nick Dunlap, has an overachievement return that puts him outside the top 15 players in the field. If we don't view him as a realistic threat, the actual total of Matsuyama's lead is six.
2) Matsuyama is the projected top performer in the field, despite overachieving with his putter by over seven shots.
I know some will see a board with boosted totals as enticing from an outright perspective, but I'd save my bullets for another day as my math has Matsuyama winning this title over 85% of the time. While that does mean someone else pulls it off 15% of the time, over 4% of that amount belongs to another outright of mine — Hovland.
Is 89% of the time safe against Scheffler? Only time will tell.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Prediction: Matsuyama to Win
