While the Ryder Cup has a random nature to the proceedings since matchups are arbitrarily put together through luck-of-the-draw pairings, one of the reasons I like the Presidents Cup more is because there is a skill that can come into play when attempting to wed each golfer with an opponent.
For years, I've held a belief about the International side that two main factors contribute to the downfall of the format.
- The Internationals are always going to be at a skill disadvantage. That means the USA could almost randomly throw their 12 players out there and get away with the outcome during Sunday Singles.
- Conversely, that skill disadvantage means how the Internationals deploy their golfers is of the utmost importance since you can't throw away a selection.
I realize that there are thin margins to be had when you are forced to alternate your picks.However, this mindset of either allowing the USA to oppose your best players (opening the selection with Matsuyama while Scheffler is on the board) or attempting to match a star (taking Adam Scott after Collin Morikawa was given by the USA) is the exact recipe that continues to plague the International team.
I am not saying the result would be different, but imagine for one second how many more opportunities you might have for success when you get yourself into a position of multiple matchups that would favor you when diving into Vegas math.
Nobody on your team will be favored over the USA stars anyway, so why not put yourself in a position to swing for the fence with an upside-caliber player while taking advantage of the softer spots with your experience?
Day Four (Singles) Predictions
It has been a hot 4-0 week so far in matchups from within these articles.
Xander Schauffele (-200) vs. Jason Day (+165)
I don't necessarily have a massive issue with the opening selection of Jason Day if you deem him the leader of the squad, but the problem that comes into play from it is that options like Si Woo Kim, Tom Kim, Byeong Hun An and Min Woo Lee would have been so much better as your wild-card golfers to oppose any USA star.
Captain Mike Weir was in a position where he knew any golfer he put out there would be matched by either Xander Schauffele or Scottie Scheffler, and honestly, I would have preferred it to have been Tom Kim as your wild-card shot to open the final day.
Prediction: Any chance for victory on the International side feels like it will need to come from a win in this match. I can't guarantee what the price would have been if your swap Day for Kim, but I assume you are looking at 30+ points lower. Schauffele likely starts the countdown to 15.5. Day should have been saved for someone like Tony Finau or Sahith Theegala.
Sam Burns (-115) vs. Tom Kim (-105)
Regardless of what my model may say about this matchup, I am willing to admit that Tom Kim is genuinely magical during the Presidents Cup.
Prediction: This matchup reminds me of what we saw last Presidents Cup, where a surging Tom Kim had the match of the day against the Top American that week in Max Homa. Homa ended up winning by one when all was said and done during Sunday Singles in 2022, and I will put a small amount on a similar outcome taking place here of Kim coming up just short. The American has quietly been one of the stars of this Presidents Cup for the USA side. It just doesn't reverberate at the same level when you are doing it for a juggernaut American side up four points.
Scottie Scheffler (-190) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (+160)
If we want to keep going back down memory lane, Scottie Scheffler was unsuccessful two years ago against Sebastian Munoz in singles. Can he flip the script this week after what has been a relatively shaky ball-striking effort for him over three days?
Prediction: There are going to be upsets on the slate. The seventh-ranked player in the world beating the number-one golfer would be far from a shocker, but I'd consider this a no-bet that favors Scheffler being closer to the right side of value.
Sungjae Im (-120) vs. Russell Henley (+100)
A Russell Henley win or tie would secure him as the 'Top Overall Rookie Scorer' at his pre-event odds of 8/1
Prediction: I see very little value in this matchup, although I would argue that the wrong man is favored.
Patrick Cantlay (-180) vs. Taylor Pendrith (+150)
Taylor Pendrith has a chance to secure a piece of being the 'Top International Scorer.' Perhaps as a solo candidate if a few things break in his favor.
Prediction: There are wild variations throughout the space with this line. I have seen this as low as -150 for Patrick Cantlay if you are shopping around, but I would consider this as a pass since I think the American wins.
Si Woo Kim (-120) vs. Keegan Bradley (+100)
I am fine discounting anything Keegan Bradley has done this week since I never loved the pairing of him next to Wyndham Clark. It felt like a duo that captain Jim Furyk kept putting together because he had nowhere else for either to go.
Prediction: I don't have a great reason why I decided to pass on this wager within my portfolio. My model liked Si Woo Kim and had a little value on the surface. I just decided I would rather wager on Sam Burns.
Corey Conners (-110) vs. Tony Finau (-110)
Corey Conners fell victim to Mike Weir and his decisions. The ideal partner for him this week would have been Adam Scott. You don't have to look any further than how he performed next to Taylor Pendrith.
Prediction: Any of the plus numbers on Corey Conners throughout the space would be where the value is for this virtual coin-flip. It is less conducive when priced at -110 both ways.
Other Matchups
Wyndham Clark (-135) vs. Min Woo Lee (+114)
Prediction: The Internationals are liable to steal a handful of similar battles as this one. However, I am giving Wyndham Clark the same pass that I did Keegan Bradley. I will say Clark pulls this win off.
Sahith Theegala (-125) vs. Byeong Hun An (+105)
Prediction: If Mike Weir didn't ice Byeong Hun An for multiple sessions, I would have been all over this matchup. Not rolling him out in either session Saturday was detrimental to their projected win equity as a team.
Collin Morikawa (-155) vs. Adam Scott (+130)
Prediction: It feels as if Adam Scott gets this same draw every Sunday to end the Presidents Cup. Loss to Xander Schauffele in 2019. Loss to Patrick Cantlay in 2022. Maybe letting his use his veteran experience against someone else would be a quality move?
Brian Harman (-125) vs. Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+105)
Prediction: I have no interest in backing either of these players. I'd lean Bezuidenhout because of the plus number.
Mackenzie Hughes (-120) vs. Max Homa (+100)
Prediction: Max Homa has looked motivated this week, even though he has yet to win a point. I will predict he ends his week off with some points for the USA team after finally removing the weight of Brian Harman.
