Just like that, we have a match again. The International squad completely flipped the tables Friday with a 5-0 victory.
My Thursday article discussed some of the quality teams and chances the Internationals would have during Friday's alternate shot format and that helped us seize a 2-0 day in the betting market.
I've always thought Saturday's four-ball start would be a spot where the International team would desperately need to hold on for dear life until the afternoon slate (we saw what happened to start this event Thursday), but USA captain Jim Furyk might have made a few minor blunders that could keep this as an open competition.
Let's talk about those matchups below!
Day Three (Four-Ball) Predictions
(Note: All "Overall Rank" totals take into account the partner each golfer is playing with for the day.)
Scottie Scheffler/Collin Morikawa (-220) vs. Taylor Pendrith/Adam Scott (+180)
I won't sit here and question the paring Furyk put together to try and secure a whole point by pairing Scottie Scheffler and Collin Morikawa together.
There hasn't been a more robust unit deployed by any team this week, and it's hard to view this as anything other than a quality combination that will try its best to help the USA get out an early lead on the day.
I wouldn't call this a foregone conclusion as some of the birdie-making upside from Adam Scott and Taylor Pendrith is enticing as a dart-throw team. However, there is an uphill battle for the Internationals to get any points out of this battle.
Prediction: As all American-sided matchups have been this week, the price is too inflated. This will be a pass for me because Morikawa/Scheffler form the team of all teams this week. However, I do like the wild-card nature from captain Mike Weir. America losing this would be absolutely demoralizing.
Xander Schauffele/Tony Finau (-160) vs. Corey Conners/Mackenzie Hughes (+130)
When running the numbers, my model shows this as a one-sided contest, but what is there to not love about a Canadian tandem on home soil?
Corey Conners/Mackenzie Hughes dominated Alternate Shot on Friday and will look to provide a formidable pairing in Best Ball on Saturday.
Prediction: This price is massively different throughout the space if you shop around. My initial thought would be that any of the +150 to +160 prices that opened early were too high, although it is hard to make a wager as I lean toward Schauffle/Finau being the correct side. I know I said the USA needed to win Scheffler/Morikawa, but losing both of these would be the worst-case scenario.
Wyndham Clark/Keegan Bradley (-117) vs. Tom Kim/Si Woo Kim (-109)
Throughout the week, I've been on record saying Tom Kim will provide negative win equity to most pairings for the International squad.
If you have been following, this appears to be a wild 180-degree position from my take, but Si Woo Kim is perhaps the optimal partner fto be paired alongside Kim in this format.
I thought Furyk got bailed out Thursday when he placed Keegan Bradley and Wyndham Clark together because of a struggling Christiaan Bezuidenhout. There wasn't a team that graded lower in my data than the American side to begin the day on Saturday.
Prediction: I won't have much exposure early on Saturday, but this is the one prime spot for the Internationals to pick up a point at -109. I would have had this priced nearly 20 points higher.
Patrick Cantlay/Sam Burns (-110) vs. Hideki Matsuyama/Sungjae Im (-110)
I called Patrick Cantlay/Sam Burns vs. Hideki Matsuyama/Corey Conners a coin-flip for this format on Thursday and hold a similar belief for this matchup.
