Angels vs. Yankees Odds
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+125 | 8 -120 / +100 | +1.5 -155 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -155 | 8 -120 / +100 | -1.5 +125 |
The Yankees haven't lost a series yet this season, and thanks to a walk-off sacrifice fly on Wednesday night, they'll have a chance to preserve that streak on Thursday at Yankee Stadium.
Two fantastic lefties — Patrick Sandoval and Nestor Cortes — will duel in a rubber match between the Angels and Yankees in the Bronx, but who has the upper hand?
Let's break that down in my Angels vs. Yankees preview, which includes a pick on the total.
Los Angeles Angels
The first component of this matchup is Patrick Sandoval. After a stellar World Baseball Classic in which he tossed 7 1/3 innings of one-run ball for Team Mexico, the left-hander has allowed just two earned runs through his first three starts.
With his 1.23 ERA, though, come some troubling numbers.
For starters, Sandoval's walk rate is once again hovering around 10%. This has long been an issue for him, but he's at least been able to say that he's an above-average strikeout arm in years past.
So far, he's sat down just 15.9% of the batters he's faced, which is unseasonably low for him. He's also allowed four barrels in just 46 batted balls, hence why his xERA stands at 4.38.
I don't necessarily think this all means that Sandoval is a crummy pitcher, but it's best to take this 14 2/3-inning sample with a grain of salt given he's slightly behind where he was a year ago.
As for this Angels offense, well, they've scored eight runs in two games, which seems right on par with a 102 wRC+ for the season. That puts them smack-dab in the middle of the league in that department.
The Angels are perfectly average at the plate, but they're sporting a 151 wRC+ against lefties to this point, which ranks third in baseball. They've hit .305 within the split in 133 plate appearances, slugging seven homers.
New York Yankees
Nestor Cortes Jr. gets the ball once again for the Yankees, and if there was any doubt that he was still an effective pitcher, he seemed to squash all of that in his last start.
The 2022 All-Star shut down a solid Twins offense at Yankee Stadium last week, allowing just two earned runs over seven frames — with seven strikeouts — to bring his ERA down to 2.60 on the year.
Cortes has now only walked two batters over his 17 1/3 innings, and while he allowed two solo homers to the Twins, those are the only two he's yielded to this point.
The southpaw was lacking in the strikeout department until his seven punch outs last week, and his whiff rate is now actually up compared to last season.
The Yankees were one of the best teams in baseball against lefties a year ago, but to this point, they have started off with a league-worst .186 batting average in the split.
The saving grace would be an astronomical 14.4% walk rate against southpaws, but they've really gotten nothing done in the power department to compliment that.
For the year, they're rocking a measly 103 wRC+ against all arms, though a .184 Isolated Power puts them fourth in the league.
It'll continue to come down to how much power these bats can supply.
Angels vs. Yankees Betting Pick
Walks have always been an issue for Sandoval, so I'm not exactly inclined to trust him a whole lot here. You simply can't enter a start against a team as careful at the plate as the Yankees with known control issues.
On top of that, Sandoval's 8.7% barrel rate in this incredibly small sample size is also a huge concern, given that was one of the areas he was able to keep things under control in years past.
I do think that the Yankees' numbers against lefties will gradually improve, and this start should help move them in the right direction.
That doesn't mean they'll win this game running away, though, even if I am a fan of Cortes. These Angels bats have mashed lefties all season long, and that's no surprise given the many capable right-handed bats they've added this season.
I'm going to go against my gut and take the over here. I think one or both of these starters will struggle, and that's pretty tough news considering both bullpens were stretched thin last night in an extra-inning affair.
Let's ignore the fact that we've got two capable pitchers on the hill and trust what the numbers are telling us to this point.
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