Athletics vs Twins Odds | Saturday Moneyline Prediction
| Oakland Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
+180 | 8 -112o / -108u | +1.5 -115 |
| Minnesota Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Over/Under | Run Line |
-218 | 8 -112o / -108u | -1.5 -105 |
Bailey Ober of the Twins and Joey Estes of the Athletics could not be more similar pitchers when it comes to statistics, velocity and approach. Ober has the longer MLB track record, but the expected numbers between the two are pretty similar.
The Twins, though, have shockingly not done too well against right-handers in the last month and are relatively equal to the A’s when it comes to production. Since Oakland features more quality relief arms, it could be a nice play as underdogs in this matchup.
Athletics vs Twins odds for Saturday have the Twins as -218 moneyline favorites with an over/under of 8 (-112o/-108u). Find my A's vs Twins moneyline prediction below.
Oakland Athletics
Joey Estes owns a 4.78 ERA against a 3.53 xERA. He rarely walks anyone (6.1%) and has an above-average chase rate and average strikeout rate (21.4%). His fastball averages around 92-93 mph.
The big issue with Estes is his ground-ball rate, which ranks in the first percentile. With an Average Exit Velocity allowed of 89.8 mph, this can come to the surface against the Twins, who keep the ball off the ground frequently.
The A’s have a 79 wRC+ in the last month against righties. Their walk rate is 7.3%, and they are striking out at an alarmingly high rate (28.4%). They have four hitters who have an xwOBA over .320 and five above .310. It's not the deepest lineup, but it should be able to compete against Ober.
In the bullpen, the A’s have a collective 4.63 xFIP with a 19.3% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in the last month. However, they have four arms under 4.00 in the last month, too.
Minnesota Twins
Ober's ERA is 5.13 and his xERA is under 4.00 with an Average Exit Velocity of 88.3 MPH. His ground-ball rate ranks in the 6th percentile; his strikeout rate is 23.6% and his walk rate is 6.5%.
Adding onto those numbers, his fastball tops out around 92 mph. Given the similar arsenals and tend tendency to give up fly balls, Ober and Estes could not be more alike.
The Twins have not been great against righties in the last month — they have a 102 wRC+, 8.7% walk rate and 20.3% strikeout rate. They have five batters above a .320 xwOBA and six over .310. Yes, this would add up to one more relatively decent hitter than the A's, but that should not lead to a moneyline this skewed.
Minnesota’s bullpen has not been strong since June 15. The Twins have a 4.30 xFIP, 19.6% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. The kicker is only two Minnesota relief pitchers have an xFIP under 4.00.
Simply put, Oakland has more options to go to once its starter exits the game. Since Ober is not necessarily better than Estes, the relief edge could go to the A’s.
Athletics vs. Twins
Betting Pick & Prediction
Minnesota has not hit right-handers well enough to justify a line this skewed in its direction.
Ober and Estes are a wash in the starting pitching department. However, the Twins do not have much of an edge in the batter’s box, and Oakland should hold the advantage in relief.
The A’s have taken a slide lately, but this is a game they could steal. If Brent Rooker can shake his slump, that is an added boost to Oakland's. Take the A’s in Minnesota — play them from +154 to +125 on the moneyline.
Pick: A's Moneyline +154 to +125
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