On April 13, a bettor in Colorado placed $50 at BetMGM that the 2022 World Series would end with the Houston Astros beating the Philadelphia Phillies.
That bettor, who has chosen to remain anonymous, would net $125,000 if it happens.
With the Phillies' World Series title odds as long as +160, a roughly $48,000 hedge at that number would guarantee a profit of $77,000 for the bettor, or about 62% of his prospective profit with 0% of the risk.
In actual dollars, though, that's leaving an extra $48,000 on the table.
With a $48K hedge at +160, if the Phillies win, the bettor would net $76,800 minus the original $50 stake from April.
If the Astros win, his original ticket would net $125,000. Subtract $48K for the hedge and you come up with a $77K profit.
Would you take the guaranteed money?
If you are holding this ticket, what do you do?
❤️ Hedge, 🔄Let it Ride pic.twitter.com/mhNEXojCfw
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) October 24, 2022
The bettor with the ticket is adamant: He's letting it ride.
"It's been surreal living and dying with the Phillies from April all the way through Philtober," the bettor said, in a statement issued by BetMGM. "Shoutout to the Astros for taking care of business, and to the Dodgers for choking as usual."
The sportsbook is sending the bettor to Houston to watch Game 1.
Because the bettor is risking a guaranteed profit of $77K, you can think of his wager now as a $77K to win $48K bet. He's risking a guaranteed $77K to win an extra $48K.
That effectively means the bettor has staked $77K on the Astros at a price of roughly -160 to win the World Series.
